Abstract

The 2017 US tax legislation—widely referred to as the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA)—fundamentally transformed the US system of international taxation. It ostensibly ended worldwide taxation but introduced, for instance, a new tax on “Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income”. This paper surveys the emerging empirical literature on the impact of the TCJA’s international provisions. It documents five robust findings in this empirical literature. First, the TCJA led to a general decline in US MNCs’ foreign acquisitions. Second, the TCJA increased US MNCs’ investment in routine foreign tangible assets. Third, the reform did not lead to any change in profit shifting by US MNCs beyond the magnitude that would be expected based on the TCJA’s tax rate reduction. Fourth, The TCJA appears to have reduced the market value of US MNCs relative to domestic US firms. Fifth, the TCJA does not appear to have had any detectable impact on domestic US investment and wages (although there are some contrary results for capital expenditures). The welfare implications of these findings depend crucially on whether US MNCs’ are viewed as having engaged in too much or too little foreign activity prior to the TCJA. This depends on the choice of theoretical framework and the relevant normative benchmark, and cannot readily be resolved empirically.

中文翻译：

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2017年美国国际税制改革的后果：证据调查

摘要

2017 年美国税收立法（广泛称为《减税和就业法案》(TCJA)）从根本上改变了美国的国际税收体系。它表面上结束了全球税收，但引入了例如“全球无形低税收入”的新税种。本文调查了有关 TCJA 国际条款影响的新兴实证文献。它记录了该实证文献中的五个强有力的发现。首先，TCJA导致美国跨国公司海外收购普遍下降。其次，《TCJA》增加了美国跨国公司对常规外国有形资产的投资。第三，改革并未导致美国跨国公司的利润转移发生任何超出根据 TCJA 税率降低所预期的幅度的变化。第四，TCJA 似乎降低了美国跨国公司相对于美国本土公司的市场价值。第五，TCJA 似乎没有对美国国内投资和工资产生任何可察觉的影响（尽管资本支出有一些相反的结果）。这些调查结果对福利的影响在很大程度上取决于美国跨国公司是否被认为在 TCJA 之前参与了太多或太少的外国活动。这取决于理论框架和相关规范基准的选择，并且不能轻易地通过经验来解决。