We document that the stock prices of food-sector firms react to USDA news. The economic and statistical significance of the effect depends on the commodity, type of scheduled USDA report, and direction and extent to which the USDA information surprises the market. Individual stock price responses to USDA news differ between firms on the input-side . firms on the output-side of agricultural (farm) production, based on which component of the firm's cash-flow expectations (costs or revenues) and which variable (commodity price or expected firm output) is impacted by the news. Planted Area surprises have the largest effect for both subsets of firms (ag-as-inputs and ag-as-output), followed by Grain Stocks news—with the effects having the expected sign. In contrast, WASDE surprises have very modest and mixed impacts on food-sector stock returns. Our findings establish that USDA announcements have an impact well beyond their recognized relevance to commodity markets.

中文翻译：

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美国农业部的报告也会影响股市

我们记录了食品行业公司的股价对美国农业部新闻的反应。影响的经济和统计意义取决于商品、美国农业部预定报告的类型以及美国农业部信息给市场带来惊喜的方向和程度。在投入方面，各个公司的股价对美国农业部新闻的反应各不相同。农业（农场）生产产出方的公司，基于公司现金流预期的哪个组成部分（成本或收入）以及哪个变量（商品价格或预期公司产出）受到新闻的影响。种植面积意外对公司的两个子集（农业投入和农业产出）影响最大，其次是粮食库存新闻，其影响符合预期。相比之下，WASDE 的意外对食品行业股票回报的影响非常有限且复杂。我们的研究结果表明，美国农业部公告的影响远远超出了其与大宗商品市场公认的相关性。