Ongoing legislative responses to the impacts of the pandemic have prompted many countries to evaluate whether their bankruptcy systems remain fit for purpose. Moreover, the current climate highlights the importance of data-driven policy, which the literature identifies as a deficiency of bankruptcy regimes. In Australia, the 2015 reform proposals to reduce the default discharge period from 3 years to 1 year are currently being revised amidst stakeholder concern about potential abuse and repeat bankrupts. Although an extensive body of literature exists on ‘repeat filers’ in the USA, there has been no equivalent study in Australia. Using our data of 153,526 bankruptcies between 2007 and 2021, we conducted a novel application of survival analysis to predict the probability of a repeat bankruptcy comparing business and non-business groups. The results show that this probability peaked in both male and females with non-business-related administrations irrespective of client's age, employment and relationship status. These findings are important as they identify the prospects that certain bankrupt groups have higher rates of repeat bankruptcy, which can inform strategies to improve their survival rate. A significance of our study is the development of a high-quality longitudinal dataset that facilitates the extension of the data models and allows easy updates about targeted questions involving bankruptcy-related policy shifts and impacts on sub-populations. This methodological approach will enable regulators and insolvency experts to address concerns of repeat bankruptcy to guide policy, evaluate reform and extend the evidence base in other jurisdictions.

中文翻译：

---

预测重复消费者破产：2007-2021 年澳大利亚商业相关重复申请的生存分析

针对大流行影响的持续立法反应促使许多国家评估其破产制度是否仍然适合其目的。此外，当前的环境凸显了数据驱动政策的重要性，文献将其视为破产制度的缺陷。在澳大利亚，由于利益相关者担心潜在的滥用行为和重复破产，目前正在修订 2015 年将违约解除期限从 3 年缩短至 1 年的改革提案。尽管美国有大量关于“重复申报者”的文献，但澳大利亚还没有类似的研究。利用 2007 年至 2021 年间 153,526 起破产的数据，我们进行了生存分析的新颖应用，以比较企业和非企业群体来预测重复破产的概率。结果表明，无论客户的年龄、就业和关系状况如何，这种概率在从事非商业相关管理的男性和女性中均达到峰值。这些发现很重要，因为它们确定了某些破产群体重复破产率较高的前景，这可以为提高其生存率的策略提供参考。我们研究的一个重要意义是开发高质量的纵向数据集，该数据集有助于数据模型的扩展，并可以轻松更新涉及破产相关政策转变和对子群体影响的目标问题。这种方法将使监管机构和破产专家能够解决重复破产的问题，以指导政策、评估改革并扩大其他司法管辖区的证据基础。