The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Respondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least ~ 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios. The influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel fire behavior is likely given the unprecedented human disruption of plant communities, climate, and other factors. Future fire regimes are likely to degrade key ecosystem services, unless climate change is aggressively mitigated. Expert assessment complements empirical data and modeling, providing a broader perspective of fire science to inform decision making and future research priorities.

中文翻译：

---

评估全球火灾状况的变化

全球人类足迹从根本上改变了野火状况，对人类健康、生物多样性和气候造成严重后果。然而，仍然很难预测土地利用、管理和气候变化之间的长期相互作用将如何影响火灾行为，这是可持续管理的一个关键知识差距。我们利用专家评估综合了 99 名野火研究人员对过去和未来火灾状况的意见。我们要求对从全新世开始到 2300 年火灾状况变化的频率、类型和影响进行定量和定性评估。受访者表示，尽管自然气候变化，但至少自距今 12,000 年以来，人类对野火产生了一些直接影响对于大多数研究地区来说，直到距今 5000 年前，火势变化仍然是火势变化的主要驱动因素。回应表明，与全新世其余时期相比，过去 250 年中火灾状况变化的频率增加了十倍，这首先与土地利用的集约化和扩展相对应，随后与人为气候变化相对应。展望未来，预计除草原生态系统外的所有生物群落的火灾频率、严重程度和规模都会加剧。不同生物群落的火情表现出不同的气候敏感性，但随着所有生物群落变暖情况的加剧，火情变化的可能性也随之增加。在较高排放情景下，大多数生物群落的生物多样性、碳储存和其他生态系统服务预计都会减少。我们提出了在新出现的火灾情况下适应和缓解的建议，同时认识到管理选择在较高排放情况下受到限制。在过去的两个世纪中，人类对野火的影响有所增加。在土地和火灾管理策略中应考虑从过去的火灾中获得的观点，但考虑到人类对植物群落、气候和其他因素造成的前所未有的破坏，新的火灾行为可能会发生。除非积极缓解气候变化，否则未来的火灾状况可能会降低关键的生态系统服务。专家评估补充了经验数据和模型，提供了更广泛的火灾科学视角，为决策和未来的研究重点提供信息。