The production and use of fossil fuels need to decline rapidly to limit global warming. Although global net-zero scenarios abound, the associated development ramifications for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries (LLMICs), as well as adequate international responses, have been underexplored. Here we conceptualize that, depending on country context, three types of development transition follow from declining fossil fuel production and use for LLMIC producers, namely an energy transition, an economic transition and an equitable fossil fuel production transition. We propose a classification of these transitions, arguing that heterogeneity in LLMICs’ fossil fuel production and usage substantially impacts their pathways towards low-carbon development. We illustrate this by discussing different cases of fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, focusing on Mozambique, India, Lao PDR and Angola. We conclude by detailing context-specific international support portfolios to foster low-carbon development in fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, and call for a re-orientation of international support along principles of global solidarity.

化石燃料的生产和使用需要迅速减少，以限制全球变暖。尽管全球净零情景比比皆是，但对化石燃料生产的低收入和中低收入国家 (LLMIC) 的相关发展影响以及适当的国际应对措施尚未得到充分探讨。在这里，我们认为，根据国家具体情况，低等中低收入国家生产者化石燃料生产和使用量下降会导致三种类型的发展转型，即能源转型、经济转型和公平化石燃料生产转型。我们提出对这些转变进行分类，认为中低收入国家化石燃料生产和使用的异质性极大地影响了它们的低碳发展之路。我们通过讨论生产化石燃料的低收入国家的不同案例来说明这一点，重点是莫桑比克、印度、老挝人民民主共和国和安哥拉。最后，我们详细介绍了针对具体情况的国际支持组合，以促进生产化石燃料的低收入国家的低碳发展，并呼吁按照全球团结的原则重新调整国际支持的方向。