Purpose: This study assessed the influences of different lifestyle on mild cognitive impairment (MCI) progression and established a decision tree prediction model to analyse their predictive significance on MCI progression incidence.
Patients and Methods: From October 2015 to February 2020,330 patients with MCI were recruited, and demographic and lifestyle information collected. They were followed up for 19.04 ± 10.227 months. Cognitive function was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination Scale every 6 months, and they were divided into MCI stable group and MCI progression group.
Results: The Kaplan Meier survival analysis showed an overall cohort survival rate of 33.2%; the annual conversion rate of MCI progression was 20%. Physical exercise, social engagement, high-fat diet, age, napping, and tea drinking were decision tree prediction model nodes. Hobbies were the most important factor for predicting MCI progression. The MCI progression probability rates were: with hobbies 26.829% (44 cases), without hobbies 57.831% (96 cases); for those withot hobbies, with physical exercise 43.077% (28 cases) without physical exercise 72.340% (68 cases); for those without hobbies with physical exercise and social engagement 20.000% (4 cases), without social engagement 53.333% (24 cases); for those without hobbies, physical exercises and social engagement and with nap habits 48.485% (16 cases), without nap habits 66.667% (8 cases). The decision tree prediction model AUC for predicting the MCI progression receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.737 (95% confidence interval: 0.685– 0.785) (75.71% sensitivity, 71.75% specificity, P < 0.001.
Conclusion: Hobbies, physical exercise, social engagement, napping, and drinking tea can help prevent MCI progression, while a high-fat diet may exacerbate MCI progression. In this study the rule with the lowest MCI progress probability for those who had hobbies, high-fat diet, and social engagement. And the decision tree model had good prediction efficiency.

Keywords: lifestyle, mild cognitive impairment progression, survival analysis, decision tree prediction model


中文翻译：

---

生活方式对轻度认知障碍进展的影响：决策树预测模型研究

目的：本研究评估不同生活方式对轻度认知障碍（MCI）进展的影响，并建立决策树预测模型来分析其对MCI进展发生率的预测意义。
患者和方法：从2015年10月至2020年2月，招募了330名MCI患者，并收集了人口统计学和生活方式信息。他们的随访时间为 19.04 ± 10.227 个月。每6个月使用简易精神状态检查量表评估认知功能，并将其分为MCI稳定组和MCI进展组。
结果： Kaplan Meier 生存分析显示队列总体生存率为 33.2%； MCI进展的年转换率为20%。体育锻炼、社交参与、高脂肪饮食、年龄、午睡和喝茶是决策树预测模型节点。爱好是预测 MCI 进展的最重要因素。 MCI进展概率为：有爱好26.829%（44例），无爱好57.831%（96例）；无爱好者中，有体育锻炼43.077%（28例），无体育锻炼72.340%（68例）；无体育锻炼和社交爱好的人占20.000%（4例），无社交活动的人占53.333%（24例）；无爱好、体育锻炼、社交活动，有午睡习惯者占48.485%（16例），无午睡习惯者占66.667%（8例）。预测 MCI 进展的决策树预测模型 AUC 为 0.737（95% 置信区间：0.685–0.785）（75.71% 敏感性，71.75% 特异性，P < 0.001。
结论：爱好、体育锻炼、社交参与、午睡和喝茶有助于预防 MCI 进展，而高脂肪饮食可能会加剧 MCI 进展。在本研究中，有爱好、高脂肪饮食和社交活动的人 MCI 进展概率最低。

关键词：生活方式，轻度认知障碍进展，生存分析，决策树预测模型