We estimate the short run effects of Brexit border disruption on the UK economy. We estimate a structural VAR for the UK, where Brexit effects are identified by the dates of Brexit events, the referendum, and the exit from the single market. We find evidence of short run effects of Brexit: temporary effects on GDP, exports and imports (slightly negative), and on inflation and interest rates (slightly positive). These effects are consistent with modest disruption from introducing a border with the EU—a border due to be made barrier-free and seamless by the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement. Previous work using other countries as comparators is vulnerable to identification difficulties. We also survey earlier modeling work on the long run effects of evolving policies of free trade, UK-sourced regulation, and liberalized immigration. Models of long run trade suggest the emergence of substantial gains.

中文翻译：

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模拟英国脱欧对英国经济的影响

我们估计英国脱欧边境中断对英国经济的短期影响。我们估算了英国的结构性 VAR，其中脱欧影响通过脱欧事件、公投和退出单一市场的日期来确定。我们发现了英国脱欧短期影响的证据：对 GDP、出口和进口（轻微负面影响）以及通货膨胀和利率（轻微正面影响）的暂时影响。这些影响与引入与欧盟的边界造成的适度破坏是一致的——英国-欧盟贸易与合作协定将使边界变得无障碍和无缝。以前使用其他国家作为比较者的工作很容易遇到识别困难。我们还调查了早期关于不断发展的自由贸易政策、英国监管和自由化移民政策的长期影响的模型工作。长期贸易模型表明出现了实质性收益。