In the planning of a software development project, managers must estimate the amount of effort needed for distinct phases of activity. A number of rules of thumb exist in the literature to help the program manager in this task. However, very little work has been done to validate these rules of thumb. Applying least square models and Hotelling's $T^{2}$ test, we evaluate these rules of thumb against a large database of Department of Defense projects. We determine that variability limits the simple application of any such rule. However, there are some worthy of closer attention, and we recommend adjustments for improved application. We also determine that projects which give extra attention to early phases experience less schedule growth. These findings were robust across developmental process type, military service, and project size.

中文翻译：

---

软件阶段管理经验法则的评估以及阶段工作与进度成功之间的关系

在软件开发项目的规划中，管理者必须估计不同活动阶段所需的工作量。文献中存在许多经验法则可以帮助项目经理完成这项任务。然而，验证这些经验法则的工作却很少。应用最小二乘模型和霍特林模型$T^{2}$测试中，我们根据国防部项目的大型数据库评估这些经验法则。我们确定可变性限制了任何此类规则的简单应用。然而，有一些值得密切关注的地方，我们建议进行调整以改进应用程序。我们还确定，对早期阶段给予额外关注的项目的进度增长较少。这些发现在开发过程类型、兵役和项目规模方面都是稳健的。