How will climate change affect risks to economic activity? Research on climate impacts has tended to focus on effects on the average level of economic growth. I examine whether climate change may make severe contractions in economic activity more likely using quantile regressions linking growth to temperature. The effects of temperature on downside risks to economic growth are large and robust across specifications. These results suggest the growth at risk from climate change is large—climate change may make economic contractions more likely and severe and thereby significantly impact economic and financial stability and welfare.

中文翻译：

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增长面临气候变化的风险

气候变化将如何影响经济活动的风险？关于气候影响的研究往往侧重于对经济增长平均水平的影响。我使用将增长与温度联系起来的分位数回归来研究气候变化是否更有可能导致经济活动严重收缩。温度对经济增长下行风险的影响在各种规格中都很大且强劲。这些结果表明，气候变化带来的增长风险很大——气候变化可能使经济收缩更有可能、更严重，从而对经济和金融稳定及福利产生重大影响。