Abstract

To adapt forest ecosystems and forest management to climate change, it is essential to know which forest regions and which tree species are resilient to climate variability and which ones are possibly affected most by past and anticipated future changes. In this contribution, for the main forest regions of Türkiye and six tree species, recent climate variability and trends were quantified and statistically correlated to record tree defoliation and vitality. Climate variables considered are maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean), and total precipitation (Prcp), which are compared to forest health responses recorded as part of the International Cooperative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests) on 277 plots across forests along the Black Sea and Mediterranean regions. In addition, long-term data on satellite measurements of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were extracted for the same 277 plots for the period 2008–2020. Firstly, 30 years (1991–2020) of reanalysis of climate variables from ECMWF were extracted for all plots; secondly, individual correlations and cross-correlations of climate variables and tree health and vitality were computed for the period 2008–2020 (significance level of 95%) for the four most dominant species from the Black Sea forests (F. orientalis, Q. cerris, P. sylvestris, P. orientalis) and two species from Mediterranean forests (P. brutia and C. libani). Temperature showed a stronger effect on most species than precipitation. Finally, time-lagged correlations were analyzed for seven-time lags (significance level of 95%) to evaluate legacy effect. The analysis revealed that different tree species from the two regions show different responses to climate variables. Species in the Mediterranean region are more resistant to droughts and climatic variations. Legacy effects of defoliation and NDVI have lasted for at least 2 years.

中文翻译：

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气候趋势和变率对土耳其黑海和地中海森林树木健康反应的影响

摘要

为了使森林生态系统和森林管理适应气候变化，必须了解哪些森林区域和哪些树种能够适应气候变化，哪些树种可能受过去和预期未来变化的影响最大。在这篇文章中，对于土耳其的主要森林地区和六种树种，最近的气候变化和趋势进行了量化，并与创纪录的树木落叶和活力进行了统计相关。考虑的气候变量包括最高温度 ( Tmax )、最低温度 ( Tmin )、平均温度 ( Tmean ) 和总降水量 ( Prcp )，将其与作为国际空气评估和监测合作计划的一部分记录的森林健康反应进行比较黑海和地中海地区 277 个森林地块的污染影响（ICP 森林）。此外，还提取了 2008 年至 2020 年期间相同 277 个地块的归一化植被指数 (NDVI) 卫星测量的长期数据。首先，从 ECMWF 中提取所有地块的 30 年（1991-2020）气候变量再分析；其次，计算了 2008 年至 2020 年期间黑海森林四种最主要物种（F. orientalis、Q. cerris ）气候变量与树木健康和活力的个体相关性和互相关性（显着性水平为 95%）。 、P. sylvestris、P. orientalis）和来自地中海森林的两个物种（P. brutia和C. libani）。温度对大多数物种的影响比降水更大。最后，对七时间滞后（显着性水平为 95%）的时间滞后相关性进行分析，以评估遗留效应。分析显示，这两个地区的不同树种对气候变量表现出不同的反应。地中海地区的物种对干旱和气候变化的抵抗力更强。落叶和NDVI的遗留影响已持续至少 2 年。