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Analyzing the dynamical relationships between meteorological and hydrological drought of Wadi Mina basin, Algeria using a novel multiscale framework
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment ( IF 4.2 ) Pub Date : 2024-02-14 , DOI: 10.1007/s00477-024-02663-w
Mohammed Achite , Oguz Simsek , Adarsh Sankaran , Okan Mert Katipoğlu , Tommaso Caloiero

Understanding the relationship between hydrological and meteorological drought in drought-prone regions is critical for proper reservoir management. This study presents a novel multiscale framework for investigating the associations between hydrological and meteorological drought based on the Time-Dependent Intrinsic Correlation (TDIC) method. Firstly, the characteristics of short, medium and long term standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized runoff index (SRI) of the Wadi Mina basin (Algeria) have been analyzed based on data from 6 rainfall and hydrometric stations. Then an Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) method is used to decompose the most correlated SPI and SRI series to different scales. A stronger association between the two types of droughts is evident in the low-frequency trend component regardless of the station, but their evolution pattern does not remain the same. Subsequently, a TDIC based running correlation analysis is performed between the modes to examine the SPI–SRI associations over the time domain and across the time scales. TDIC analysis has proven the dynamic behavior in the SPI–SRI associations bearing frequent alterations in nature and strength across the process scales and along the time domain. In general, at the intra-annual scales the SPI–SRI correlations are mostly weak positive with localized alterations to negative along the time domain, whereas the relationship is dominantly strong positive and long range at inter-annual scales up to 4 years. This dynamic behavior in the SPI–SRI association and the evolution pattern of trend decipher that the rainfall processes are not directly transferred to streamflow drought, but it also gets controlled by many other local meteorological processes.



中文翻译:

使用新型多尺度框架分析阿尔及利亚瓦迪米纳盆地气象和水文干旱之间的动态关系

了解干旱多发地区水文和气象干旱之间的关系对于正确的水库管理至关重要。本研究提出了一种新颖的多尺度框架,用于基于时间相关内在相关(TDIC)方法来研究水文和气象干旱之间的关联。首先,基于阿尔及利亚瓦迪米纳流域6个降雨水文站的数据,分析了其短、中、长期标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化径流指数(SRI)的特征。然后使用改进的带有自适应噪声的完全集成经验模式分解(ICEEMDAN)方法将最相关的SPI和SRI系列分解到不同的尺度。无论在哪个站点,两种类型的干旱之间的低频趋势分量之间的关联性都比较明显,但它们的演变模式并不保持相同。随后,在模式之间执行基于 TDIC 的运行相关性分析,以检查时域和跨时间尺度上的 SPI-SRI 关联。 TDIC 分析已经证明了 SPI-SRI 关联的动态行为,在整个过程尺度和时域内,其性质和强度经常发生变化。一般来说,在年内尺度上,SPI-SRI相关性大多呈弱正相关,并沿时域局部变化为负相关,而在年际尺度上,这种关系主要呈强正相关,且范围长达4年。 SPI-SRI关联中的这种动态行为和趋势演化模式表明,降雨过程并不直接转化为径流干旱,而是受到许多其他当地气象过程的控制。

更新日期:2024-02-15
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