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Extended families and demographic explanations for land use-cover change in the Brazilian Amazon
Population and Environment ( IF 4.283 ) Pub Date : 2024-02-15 , DOI: 10.1007/s11111-024-00445-8
Julia Corrêa Côrtes , Álvaro de Oliveira D’Antona , Stephen Perz

The Household Life Cycle framework relates family demographic processes to land use-cover change, but also revealed limitations. We propose several modifications, featuring a focus on extended families instead of single households, to broaden the applicability to land use systems. In the process, we pay particular attention to temporal dynamics and the spatial distribution of families concerning demographic processes, going beyond fertility to focus on population distribution. To evaluate the extended family model’s explanatory value, we apply it to the Transamazon Highway region in Brazil. The analysis includes 330 families, which are often multi-generational and multi-sited, based on data from 402 lots (1997/8–2005). We present models for forest, secondary succession, annual crops, perennials and pasture. Explanatory variables feature nine demographic factors with five others controlling for exogenous forces. The findings show strong effects for family dynamics and spatial distribution variables in many equations. Time on lot (cohort effect), the complexity of family structure (age effect) and social integration into urban fabric (spatial effect) are demographic processes that deserve further attention in land use studies.



中文翻译:

巴西亚马逊地区土地利用覆盖变化的大家庭和人口统计解释

家庭生命周期框架将家庭人口统计过程与土地利用覆盖变化联系起来,但也暴露了局限性。我们提出了几项修改,重点关注大家庭而不是单一家庭,以扩大土地利用系统的适用性。在此过程中,我们特别关注与人口过程相关的家庭的时间动态和空间分布,超越生育率,关注人口分布。为了评估大家庭模型的解释价值,我们将其应用于巴西的跨亚马逊高速公路地区。该分析包括 330 个家庭,这些家庭通常是多代且多地点的,基于 402 个地块(1997/8-2005)的数据。我们提供森林、次生演替、一年生作物、多年生植物和牧场的模型。解释变量包括九个人口因素,另外五个因素控制外生因素。研究结果表明,许多方程中的家庭动态和空间分布变量具有强烈影响。土地使用时间(群体效应)、家庭结构的复杂性(年龄效应)和社会融入城市结构(空间效应)是值得在土地利用研究中进一步关注的人口过程。

更新日期:2024-02-15
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