U.S. agricultural producers are increasingly able to participate in private voluntary carbon initiatives that compensate their efforts to sequester CO2, reduce GHG emissions, and provide ecosystem services through eligible conservation practices. This study examines the potential effects of alternative private payment regimes (per practice vs. per output), prices paid to farmers relative to out-of-pocket costs (low vs. high), and the availability of information on CO2 sequestration (limited vs. full), on the adoption of cover crops and no-till in the United States, the resulting CO2 sequestration, and changes in farmers’ net returns. The analysis relies on a highly stylized model of heterogeneous farms calibrated with county-level agronomic data, and simulated for current estimates of GHG impacts of cover crop planting and no-till under different scenarios. Our results indicate that agricultural carbon markets can be profitable for U.S. farmers, although with substantial geographic variability, and that annual carbon sequestration could range between 17 and 75 million mtCO2e. Payments per output would incentivize higher carbon sequestration than payments per practice, but the former regime would be less favored by farmers as a unified group than the latter (due to lower aggregate net returns). However, if operators of farms with high carbon sequestration potential could decide the payment regime to be implemented, they would choose the payment per output regime (due to higher net returns per enrolled hectare). Total projected net changes in GHGs under payments per practice, based solely on county-average net GHG effects of cover crops and no-till, over-estimate actual total GHG sequestration (based on the entire distribution of net effects by county) by 2.1 and 14.2 million mtCO2e, or 18% and 21%, respectively.

中文翻译：

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美国碳农业的商业案例

美国农业生产者越来越有能力参与私人自愿碳倡议，以补偿他们通过合格的保护实践封存二氧化碳、减少温室气体排放和提供生态系统服务的努力。本研究探讨了替代性私人支付制度（按实践与按产出）的潜在影响、相对于自付费用向农民支付的价格（低与高）以及二氧化碳封存信息的可用性（有限与高） .完整），关于美国采用覆盖作物和免耕法、由此产生的二氧化碳封存以及农民净收益的变化。该分析依赖于用县级农艺数据校准的高度程式化的异质农场模型，并模拟了不同情景下覆盖作物种植和免耕温室气体影响的当前估计。我们的结果表明，农业碳市场可以为美国农民带来利润，尽管存在很大的地理差异，而且每年的碳封存量可能在 17 至 7500 万公吨二氧化碳当量之间。按产出付费比按实践付费会激励更高的碳固存，但前一种制度不像后者那样受到农民作为一个统一群体的青睐（因为总净回报较低）。然而，如果具有高碳封存潜力的农场的经营者可以决定要实施的支付制度，他们会选择按产出支付制度（因为每登记公顷的净回报较高）。仅基于覆盖作物和免耕的县平均温室气体净影响，按每种做法付费的预计温室气体净变化总额，高估了实际总温室气体封存量（基于各县净影响的整体分布）2.1 和1,420 万公吨二氧化碳当量，分别为 18% 和 21%。