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What if precision agriculture is not profitable?: A comprehensive analysis of the right timing for exiting, taking into account different entry options
Precision Agriculture ( IF 6.2 ) Pub Date : 2024-02-17 , DOI: 10.1007/s11119-024-10111-6
Johannes Munz

The digitization of agriculture is widely discussed today. But despite proven benefits, its acceptance in agricultural practice remains low. In small-structured areas, this trend is even more pronounced. There are even known cases where farmers initially purchased and used technology, but then stopped using it due to lack of profitability or other reasons. Interestingly, despite extensive research on precision agriculture technologies (PATs), the processes of adoption and phase-out with their associated economic impacts have never been studied. This paper provides a methodological framework for evaluating the economics of PAT deployment, taking into account changes during the period of use; the framework provides decision rules for determining the appropriate time to phase out technology. Using a selected PAT, a farm model, and defined entry and exit scenarios, it was shown that farms with outdated technology and farms with retrofittable technology are at a significant economic disadvantage during implementation compared to farms already using technology suitable for site-specific fertilization or farms relying on the use of a contractor. And even in the event of a phase-out, the two disadvantaged starting conditions face significantly greater uncertainties and costs. Moreover, the decision to phase out in time is difficult, as making an informed and fact-based decision is not possible after the first year of use. Therefore, it is advisable that farmers are not only accompanied before and during phase-in, but also receive professional support during use.



中文翻译:

如果精准农业不盈利怎么办?:综合分析退出的正确时机,同时考虑不同的进入选项

农业数字化如今受到广泛讨论。但尽管其好处已得到证实,但其在农业实践中的接受度仍然很低。在小结构领域,这种趋势更为明显。甚至有一些已知的案例,农民最初购买并使用技术,但后来由于缺乏盈利能力或其他原因而停止使用。有趣的是,尽管对精准农业技术(PAT)进行了广泛的研究,但从未研究过采用和逐步淘汰的过程及其相关的经济影响。本文提供了一个评估 PAT 部署经济性的方法框架,同时考虑到使用期间的变化;该框架提供了确定逐步淘汰技术的适当时间的决策规则。使用选定的 PAT、农场模型以及定义的进入和退出情景,结果表明,与已经使用适合特定地点施肥或技术的农场相比,采用过时技术的农场和采用可改造技术的农场在实施过程中处于显着的经济劣势。依赖承包商的农场。即使在逐步淘汰的情况下,这两个不利的起始条件也面临着更大的不确定性和成本。此外,及时做出逐步淘汰的决定很困难,因为在使用第一年后不可能做出明智且基于事实的决定。因此,建议农民不仅在投入前和投入过程中得到陪伴,而且在使用过程中也能得到专业支持。

更新日期:2024-02-18
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