The psychology literature documents that individuals derive current utility from their beliefs about future events. We show that, as a result, investors in financial markets choose to disagree about both private information and price information. When objective price informativeness is low, each investor dismisses the private signals of others and ignores price information. In contrast, when prices are sufficiently informative, heterogeneous interpretations arise endogenously: most investors ignore prices, while the rest condition on it. Our analysis demonstrates how observed deviations from rational expectations (e.g., dismissiveness, overconfidence) arise endogenously, interact with each other, and vary with economic conditions.

中文翻译：

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选择不同意：金融市场的内生性轻视和过度自信

心理学文献证明，个人从他们对未来事件的信念中获得当前的效用。我们表明，因此，金融市场的投资者选择对私人信息和价格信息持不同意见。当客观价格信息量较低时，每个投资者都会忽略其他人的私人信号并忽略价格信息。相比之下，当价格提供足够的信息时，异质解释就会内生出现：大多数投资者忽视价格，而其他投资者则以价格为条件。我们的分析表明，观察到的与理性预期的偏差（例如轻视、过度自信）是如何内生产生的，如何相互作用，并随经济状况而变化。