There is evidence that individuals engage in herding behavior in diverse settings, ranging from fashion choices to financial markets. By examining the exogenous shock caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 and unique data measuring the footfalls in downtown Jönköping, Sweden, we empirically assess how individuals respond to the restrictions imposed by the government and to the behavior of others, that is, herding. To this end, a regression discontinuity analysis with time as the running variable is applied. We find a negative effect of the restriction on footfalls, indicating that individuals follow the imposed governmental restrictions. However, we also find indications that individuals imitate the actions of others and engage in herd behavior even when the cost of doing so is very high; that is, it could result in severe illness or even death. With the use the unique setting of Sweden, where there have been no enforced lockdowns, we contribute with knowledge related to how effective voluntary restrictions are and the influence of others on one's decision making. Although the nature of the studied sample limits the external generalizability of the results, it may offer guidance for future interventions in clearly delineated settings.

中文翻译：

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羊群行为和合规性在 COVID-19 危机中的实证应用

有证据表明，个人在从时尚选择到金融市场的各种环境中都会出现羊群行为。通过研究 COVID-19 爆发造成的外源性冲击以及测量瑞典延雪平市中心人流量的独特数据，我们凭经验评估个人如何应对政府施加的限制和他人的行为（即羊群行为）。为此，应用以时间为运行变量的回归不连续性分析。我们发现人流限制产生了负面影响，表明个人遵守政府施加的限制。然而，我们也发现有迹象表明，个体会模仿他人的行为并进行从众行为，即使这样做的成本非常高；也就是说，它可能导致严重的疾病甚至死亡。利用瑞典没有强制封锁的独特环境，我们贡献了有关自愿限制的有效性以及他人对个人决策的影响的知识。尽管研究样本的性质限制了结果的外部普遍性，但它可以为未来在明确描述的环境中进行干预提供指导。