This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods—from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation—and then population and economic loss estimations. The physics-based dynamic rupture and strong ground motion simulations can fully consider the three-dimensional complexity of physical parameters such as fault geometry, stress field, rock properties, and terrain. Quantitative analysis of multiple seismic disaster scenarios along the Qujiang Fault in western Yunnan Province in southwestern China based on different nucleation locations was achieved. The results indicate that the northwestern segment of the Qujiang Fault is expected to experience significantly higher levels of damage compared to the southeastern segment. Additionally, there are significant variations in human losses, even though the economic losses are similar across different scenarios. Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Yuxi City, Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture, and Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture were identified as at medium to high seismic risks, with Yuxi and Honghe being particularly vulnerable. Implementing targeted earthquake prevention measures in Yuxi and Honghe will significantly mitigate the potential risks posed by the Qujiang Fault. Notably, although the fault is within Yuxi, Honghe is likely to suffer the most severe damage. These findings emphasize the importance of considering rupture directivity and its influence on ground motion distribution when assessing seismic risk.

这项研究实现了基于物理方法的地震灾害情景构建——从断层动态破裂到地震波传播——然后是人口和经济损失估计。基于物理的动态破裂和强地震动模拟可以充分考虑断层几何形状、应力场、岩石性质和地形等物理参数的三维复杂性。实现了基于不同成核位置的云南西部曲江断裂沿线多个地震灾害场景的定量分析。结果表明，与东南段相比，曲江断裂西北段预计将遭受更高程度的破坏。此外，尽管不同情况下的经济损失相似，但人员损失却存在显着差异。大理白族自治州、楚雄彝族自治州、玉溪市、红河哈尼族彝族自治州、文山壮族苗族自治州被确定为中高地震风险区，其中玉溪市、红河州尤为脆弱。在玉溪、红河等地实施有针对性的防震措施，将显着缓解曲江断裂带来的潜在风险。值得注意的是，虽然断层位于玉溪境内，但红河可能遭受最严重的损害。这些发现强调了在评估地震风险时考虑破裂方向性及其对地震动分布的影响的重要性。