The Mediterranean Basin is an environmental change hotspot that, relative to other regions of the world, is forecasted to experience a significant shift in biodiversity due to multiple factors such as climate change and agricultural intensification. Within this framework, the Eastern Mediterranean region is projected to face a temperature rise of ∼3.5–7 °C by 2070–2099 which will result in severe heat stress and freshwater scarcity, along with increased human impacts due to pronounced demographic growth. To assess the impact of environmental and human pressures on plant diversity, we studied the evolution of this major constituent of biodiversity in the Eastern Mediterranean over 8000 years. Our analysis demonstrates that plant diversity has been impacted by long-term (e.g. multi-millennial scale) changes in temperature, precipitation and anthropogenic activities. We identified a tipping point for each of these drivers, showing that Eastern Mediterranean plant diversity has already exceeded its tipping point for precipitation (threshold: 376 ± 17 mm for winter), while it has already attained its critical threshold for temperature (threshold: 1.33 ± 0.5 °C) and anthropogenic activities (threshold: −1.05 ± 0.4 - low to medium pressures). This suggests that the region’s vegetation will probably progressively give way to species that are better suited and more resilient to the changing environmental conditions.

中文翻译：

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东地中海植物多样性的全新世古生态档案：过去、现在和未来趋势

地中海盆地是一个环境变化热点地区，与世界其他地区相比，由于气候变化和农业集约化等多种因素，预计地中海盆地的生物多样性将发生重大变化。在此框架内，预计到 2070 年至 2099 年，东地中海地区的气温将上升约 3.5–7°C，这将导致严重的热应激和淡水短缺，同时由于人口显着增长，人类影响也会加大。为了评估环境和人类压力对植物多样性的影响，我们研究了东地中海生物多样性主要组成部分 8000 年来的演变。我们的分析表明，植物多样性受到温度、降水和人类活动的长期（例如数千年尺度）变化的影响。我们为每个驱动因素确定了一个临界点，表明东地中海植物多样性已经超过了其降水临界点（阈值：冬季 376 ± 17 毫米），同时也已经达到了其温度临界阈值（阈值：1.33） ± 0.5 °C）和人为活动（阈值：-1.05 ± 0.4 - 低至中压力）。这表明该地区的植被可能会逐渐让位于更适合、更能适应不断变化的环境条件的物种。