In this paper, improved alarm rationalization strategies are introduced to evaluate the quality of the multivariate alarm systems developed in previous work – with the alarm thresholds and response actions modified appropriately, based on key statistical metrics. For an exothermic CSTR, our strategies resulted in a significant reduction in the number of nuisance alarms, focusing on only quality alarms, which, if ignored, are more likely to result in an abnormal shift in operation to the undesirable regions. Next, their real-time performance is evaluated using dynamic risk analysis (DRAn), in which, the associated risk is analyzed by estimating the failure probabilities of the multivariate alarm systems using Bayesian statistics, based on multiple dynamic simulations for the process, inclusive of control, alarms and response actions. As expected, the failure probability distribution developed for the exothermic CSTR has a much lower variance as compared to one developed using a flat prior distribution.

中文翻译：

---

罕见异常事件的警报合理化和动态风险分析

在本文中，引入了改进的警报合理化策略来评估先前工作中开发的多变量警报系统的质量 - 根据关键统计指标适当修改警报阈值和响应操作。对于放热 CSTR，我们的策略显着减少了滋扰警报的数量，仅关注质量警报，如果忽略这些警报，则更有可能导致操作异常转移到不良区域。接下来，使用动态风险分析（DRAn）评估它们的实时性能，其中基于过程的多个动态模拟，通过使用贝叶斯统计估计多元警报系统的故障概率来分析相关风险，包括控制、警报和响应行动。正如预期的那样，与使用平坦先验分布开发的失效概率分布相比，为放热 CSTR 开发的失效概率分布具有低得多的方差。