In this paper, we select 75 indicators to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing the copper price along six dimensions: inventory, supply, demand, the macroeconomy, finance, and geopolitics. Facing the high-dimensionality problem, we use the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model to select variables to measure the contribution of each category of factors. Furthermore, we identify the time-varying nature of the relationship among factors with rolling windows. Then, we decompose copper prices into different scales of fluctuations by means of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and investigate the driving factors at each scale. The results show that financial and geopolitical factors have played an important role in copper pricing in recent years. The long-run fluctuation trend of copper prices is mainly determined by fundamental factors, while financial and geopolitical factors have a more direct impact on short-term fluctuations.

中文翻译：

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基于LASSO和EMD方法的铜价影响因素时变多尺度分析

本文选取75个指标，从库存、供给、需求、宏观经济、金融、地缘政治六个维度对影响铜价的因素进行综合分析。面对高维问题，我们使用最小绝对收缩和选择算子（LASSO）回归模型来选择变量来衡量每类因素的贡献。此外，我们还确定了滚动窗口因素之间关系的随时间变化的性质。然后，我们通过经验模态分解（EMD）将铜价分解为不同的波动尺度，并研究每个尺度的驱动因素。结果表明，近年来金融和地缘政治因素在铜定价中发挥了重要作用。铜价长期波动走势主要由基本面因素决定，而金融和地缘政治因素对短期波动影响更为直接。