How should policymakers respond to the recent surge in inflation? This paper examines the impact of global supply chain pressures on euro area inflation and the implications for monetary policy. Results from a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model show that shocks to global supply chain pressures were the dominant driver of euro area inflation in 2022, and that these shocks have a highly persistent and hump-shaped impact on inflation. Furthermore, a two country New Keynesian model with international trade in intermediate goods shows that the optimal monetary policy response to global-supply-induced inflation is a non-linear function of the degree of global value chain participation.

中文翻译：

---

全球供应链压力、通货膨胀以及对货币政策的影响

政策制定者应如何应对近期通胀飙升？本文探讨了全球供应链压力对欧元区通胀的影响以及对货币政策的影响。贝叶斯结构向量自回归模型的结果表明，全球供应链压力的冲击是2022年欧元区通胀的主要驱动因素，并且这些冲击对通胀具有高度持久性和驼峰形的影响。此外，中间产品国际贸易的两国新凯恩斯主义模型表明，对全球供应引发的通货膨胀的最优货币政策反应是全球价值链参与程度的非线性函数。