Current adaptation responses to sea-level rise tend to ignore the interplay of adaptation responses and city development, leading to unintended consequences with adverse impacts on citizens’ welfare, institutional performance, and economic capacities. This study introduces a generic causal loop diagram (CLD) model, a novel approach exploring the dynamics of coastal adaptation and city development at a city scale. Unveiling key feedback mechanisms—flood risk perception, economic capacity, and trust—reveals their central role in driving negative repercussions, irrespective of the chosen strategy (protection, accommodation, planned relocation). Specifically, fiscal motivations to increase flood exposure and reinforcing dynamics between trust and institutional capacity can significantly impact socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Protection and accommodation may stimulate development in risk areas, while planned relocation faces challenges. However, well-planned relocation offer resource-effective adaptation, mitigating economic and political repercussions through long-term planning. Although the CLD lacks consideration for external drivers and spatial-temporal complexities, it provides crucial insights for coastal adaptation planning. Emphasizing holistic decision-making and multidimensional effects, this research supports informed policy formulation, fostering collaboration between urban planners and flood risk managers for robust and sustainable coastal adaptation pathways.

中文翻译：

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城市发展与沿海适应之间的反馈：系统思维方法

目前针对海平面上升的适应措施往往忽视了适应措施与城市发展之间的相互作用，从而导致意想不到的后果，对公民福利、机构绩效和经济能力产生不利影响。本研究引入了通用因果循环图（CLD）模型，这是一种探索城市尺度上沿海适应和城市发展动态的新方法。揭示关键的反馈机制——洪水风险认知、经济能力和信任——揭示了它们在造成负面影响方面的核心作用，无论选择何种策略（保护、住宿、计划搬迁）。具体而言，增加洪水风险的财政动机以及加强信任与机构能力之间的动态可以显着影响社会经济脆弱性。保护和安置可能会刺激风险地区的发展，而规划的搬迁则面临挑战。然而，精心规划的搬迁可以提供资源有效的适应，通过长期规划减轻经济和政治影响。尽管 CLD 缺乏对外部驱动因素和时空复杂性的考虑，但它为沿海适应规划提供了重要的见解。该研究强调整体决策和多维效应，支持明智的政策制定，促进城市规划者和洪水风险管理者之间的合作，以实现稳健和可持续的沿海适应途径。