We probe the interaction of large earthquakes on the East Anatolian fault zone, site of four Mw ≥ 6.8 events since 2020. We find that the 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık shock promoted the Mw 7.7 Elbistan earthquake 9 hr later, largely through unclamping of the epicentral patch of the future rupture. Epicentral unclamping is also documented in the 1987 Superstition Hills, 1997 Kagoshima, and 2019 Ridgecrest sequences, so this may be common. The Mw 7.7 Elbistan earthquake, in turn, is calculated to have reduced the shear stress on the central Pazarcık rupture, producing a decrease in the aftershock rate along that section of the rupture. Nevertheless, the Mw 7.7 event ruptured through a Çardak fault section on which the shear stress was decreased by the Mw 7.8 rupture, and so rupture propagation was not halted by the static stress decrease. The 2020 Mw 6.8 Doğanyol–Sivrice earthquake, located beyond the northeast tip of the Mw 7.8 Pazarcık rupture, locally dropped the stress by ∼10 bars. The 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake then increased the stress there by 1–2 bar, leaving a net stress drop, resulting in a hole in the 2023 Pazarcık aftershocks. We find that many lobes of calculated stress increase caused by the 2020–2023 Mw 6.8–7.8 earthquakes are sites of aftershocks, and we calculate 5–10 faults in several locations off the ruptures brought closer to failure. The earthquakes also cast broad stress shadows in which most faults were brought farther from failure, and we observe the beginnings of seismicity rate decreases in some of the deepest stress shadows. Some 41 Mw ≥ 5 aftershocks have struck since the Mw 7.8 mainshock. But based on these Coulomb interactions and on the rapid Kahramanmaraş aftershock decay, we forecast only about 1–3 Mw ≥ 5 earthquakes during the 12–month period beginning 1 December 2023, which is fortunately quite low.

中文翻译：

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2023 年土耳其卡赫拉曼马拉什序列和一年地震预报中应力传递在破裂成核和抑制中的作用

我们探讨了东安纳托利亚断层带上大地震的相互作用，该断层带自 2020 年以来发生了四次 Mw ≥ 6.8 事件。我们发现，2023 年 Mw 7.8 帕扎尔茨克地震在 9 小时后促进了 Mw 7.7 埃尔比斯坦地震，主要是通过震中斑块的松开未来的破裂。1987 年迷信山、1997 年鹿儿岛和 2019 年里奇克莱斯特序列中也记录了震中松开，因此这可能很常见。据计算，Mw 7.7 埃尔比斯坦地震降低了中央 Pazarcık 破裂的剪应力，从而导致该破裂部分的余震发生率降低。然而，Mw 7.7 事件通过恰尔达克断层断层发生破裂，该断层上的剪应力因 Mw 7.8 破裂而降低，因此破裂传播并未因静态应力降低而停止。2020 年发生的 6.8 级 Doğanyol-Sivrice 地震位于 7.8 级 Pazarcık 断裂东北端以外，局部应力下降约 10 巴。2023 年 7.8 级地震使该处的应力增加了 1-2 巴，导致净应力下降，导致 2023 年帕扎尔茨克余震中出现一个洞。我们发现，由 2020 年至 2023 年 6.8-7.8 级地震引起的计算应力增加的许多波瓣都是余震地点，并且我们计算出在接近破裂的破裂处有 5-10 个断层。地震还投射出广泛的应力阴影，其中大多数断层距离破坏更远，并且我们观察到在一些最深的应力阴影中地震活动率开始下降。自Mw 7.8主震以来，已经发生了一些41 Mw ≥ 5的余震。但根据这些库仑相互作用和卡赫拉曼马拉什余震的快速衰减，我们预测在 2023 年 12 月 1 日开始的 12 个月内只会发生约 1-3 Mw ≥ 5 次地震，幸运的是这个数字相当低。