In the pursuit of sustainable development, the presence of a robust financial sector plays a crucial role in the advancement of the green movement. However, the green bond market faces vulnerability due to the existence of geopolitical threats. This study employs empirical methods to investigate the quantile dependence of geopolitical risks originating from Russia and Ukraine on green finance. Specifically, the cross-quantilogram and partial cross-quantilogram approaches are utilized, analyzing daily data spanning from February 24, 2022, to May 26, 2023. The findings obtained from the cross-quantilogram approach reveal a pronounced negative quantile dependence between the geopolitical risks of both countries and green finance during bearish market conditions (q.10–q.40) in the short-term memory. Conversely, during the initial memory, a strong positive dependence is observed at the bullish (q.70–q.95) market conditions. However, no significant dependence is detected at either bearish or bullish market states concerning long-term memory. Interestingly, when employing the partial cross-quantilogram approach, a slightly negative association is observed at both bearish and bullish market conditions for long-term memory. These empirical findings provide valuable insights into the decision-making process for green investments, taking into account the dynamic nature of market conditions influenced by geopolitical risks stemming from the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Therefore, it is prudent for the governments to establish collaborations with private sectors and international agencies to fund green projects, thereby expediting green investment and mitigating geopolitical risks, with a focus on long-term investment, given the current absence of significant long-term detrimental effects of geopolitical risks on green bonds at the global level.

在追求可持续发展的过程中，强大的金融部门在推动绿色运动方面发挥着至关重要的作用。然而，由于地缘政治威胁的存在，绿色债券市场面临脆弱性。本研究采用实证方法考察源自俄罗斯和乌克兰的地缘政治风险对绿色金融的分位数依赖性。具体来说，利用交叉分位数图和部分交叉分位数图方法，分析从2022年2月24日到2023年5月26日的每日数据。从交叉分位数图方法获得的结果揭示了地缘政治风险之间存在明显的负分位数依赖性短期记忆中，在熊市市场条件下（第 10 季度至第 40 季度），两国和绿色金融的关系。相反，在初始记忆期间，在看涨（q.70-q.95）市场条件下观察到强烈的正相关性。然而，无论是看跌还是看涨市场状态，都没有检测到与长期记忆相关的显着依赖性。有趣的是，当采用部分交叉量化图方法时，在长期记忆的看跌和看涨市场条件下都观察到轻微的负相关。这些实证研究结果为绿色投资的决策过程提供了宝贵的见解，同时考虑到受俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突产生的地缘政治风险影响的市场条件的动态性质。因此，考虑到目前不存在重大的长期不利影响，各国政府应谨慎地与私营部门和国际机构建立合作，为绿色项目提供资金，从而加快绿色投资并缓解地缘政治风险，重点关注长期投资。地缘政治风险对全球绿色债券的影响。