Residents are key actors in the management of tourist destinations, especially in times of uncertainty such as those that characterize the current context of multidimensional crisis (ecological, political, social or economic). The role of tourism in these crises, its contribution to their acceleration or its work in recovery, makes it necessary to deepen the support of residents for tourism in complex times such as the present. The context generated by the COVID-19 health crisis is a good framework for this reflection, although it has not been sufficiently explored. This article draws on Social Exchange Theory to explain residents' support for tourism in urban destinations during periods of uncertainty such as those generated by the health crisis, focusing on factors that have so far been little explored: risk perception, community involvement and the management of tourism constraints. A structural multiple indicator multiple cause (MIMIC) model is proposed to test the theoretical model. Using data derived from a survey of 342 residents in the city of Madrid (Spain), the results show that, in addition to benefits as a predictor of residents' support for tourism in contexts of uncertainty, risk perception and the management of tourism constraints are also relevant determinants of this support. The findings have important implications for decision-makers and public managers of urban destinations in the current period of multiple crises.

中文翻译：

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不确定时期居民支持城市旅游业的决定因素：探索马德里市的案例

居民是旅游目的地管理的关键参与者，尤其是在不确定时期，例如当前多维危机（生态、政治、社会或经济）背景下的不确定时期。旅游业在这些危机中的作用、其对危机加速或复苏的贡献，使得有必要在当前这样的复杂时期加深居民对旅游业的支持。尽管尚未得到充分探讨，但 COVID-19 健康危机产生的背景是这一反思的良好框架。本文利用社会交换理论来解释居民在健康危机等不确定时期对城市目的地旅游业的支持，重点关注迄今为止很少探讨的因素：风险感知、社区参与和旅游管理旅游限制。提出了结构性多指标多因（MIMIC）模型来测试理论模型。使用对马德里市（西班牙）342 名居民进行的调查得出的数据，结果表明，除了收益作为居民在不确定性背景下对旅游业支持的预测指标之外，风险感知和旅游限制的管理也可以作为居民对旅游业支持的预测指标。也是这种支持的相关决定因素。研究结果对当前多重危机时期城市目的地的决策者和公共管理者具有重要意义。