Research on violent extremism in Africa argues that jihadi insurgents exploit inter-ethnic cleavages and local grievances in order to recruit and gain support from the region because such political mobilisation leads to an escalation of clashes and violence among communal groups. On the other hand, local militias, especially those aided by governments, incite acts of anti-government terrorists. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) data set, we explore at which duration-area level the jihadist and militia attacks affect each other’s atrocities and how the effects vary in three Francophone Sahelian countries—Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. We find that violent acts by militias (or jihadists) tend to be reactive to terrorist attacks (or militia movements) rather than happening concurrently or against one another. More specifically, violent incidents by jihadi insurgents and local militias have an aggravating effect on each other’s violent acts in sub-regional administrative units over a week at the highest rate in Mali and Burkina Faso. Further, results from a cross-country analysis suggest that homegrown factors, including terrorist group rivalry, government responses to terrorism and self-defence militias’ intentions and determination, might affect how the jihadists’ exploitation of the cleavages and the growing challenges posed by ethnic militias to the extremists exacerbate the situation.

中文翻译：

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暴力极端主义对当地冲突的影响及反之亦然：马里、布基纳法索和尼日尔之间的异同

对非洲暴力极端主义的研究认为，圣战叛乱分子利用种族间的分歧和当地的不满情绪来招募人员并获得该地区的支持，因为这种政治动员会导致社区群体之间的冲突和暴力升级。另一方面，当地民兵，特别是政府援助的民兵，煽动反政府恐怖分子的行为。使用武装冲突地点和事件数据 (ACLED) 数据集，我们探讨了圣战分子和民兵袭击在哪个持续时间区域水平上影响彼此的暴行，以及影响在三个法语萨赫勒国家（马里、布基纳法索和尼日尔）中有何不同。我们发现，民兵（或圣战分子）的暴力行为往往是对恐怖袭击（或民兵运动）的反应，而不是同时发生或相互攻击。更具体地说，圣战叛乱分子和当地民兵的暴力事件在一周多的时间内加剧了彼此在次区域行政单位的暴力行为，其中马里和布基纳法索发生率最高。此外，跨国分析的结果表明，本土因素，包括恐怖组织的竞争、政府对恐怖主义的反应以及自卫民兵的意图和决心，可能会影响圣战分子如何利用分裂和族裔构成的日益严峻的挑战。民兵对极端分子的攻击加剧了局势。