Food security is an indispensable concept because human life depends on it. Although numerous studies have examined food security in developing economies, there has been a lack of attention given to this issue in developed countries. Thus, this study investigates the influence of carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂) on food security in the United States from 1965 to 2022 using Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) and Wavelet Coherence methods. Food security is proxied by the food production index (FPI), while the control variables are gross domestic product (GDP), population growth (POP), and inflation. The Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag results show that: (i) In the short-run, CO₂ influences FPI positively at the 0.05 quantile, while it harms food security at the 0.50 and 0.95 quantiles. However, in the long-run, the impact is positive across all quantiles; (ii) In the short-run, GDP harms FPI at the 0.05 quantile while it benefits FPI at the 0.50 and 0.95 quantiles. In the long-run, GDP's impact across all quantiles is beneficial; (iii) In the short-run, POP negatively influences FPI at 0.05 and 0.50 quantiles, while it positively spurs FPI at 0.95 quantiles. In the long-run, POP positively influences FPI at quantiles of 0.05, whereas it negatively influences FPI at 0.50 and 0.95 quantiles; (iv) inflation positively influences FPI in the short and long-run across all quantiles; (v) The Wavelet Coherence analysis showed a robust correlation across all frequencies. Policy suggestions and implications are discussed further.

中文翻译：

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在经济扩张、人口增长和通货膨胀的背景下，二氧化碳排放是否会影响美国的粮食安全？QARDL 和小波相干分析

粮食安全是一个不可或缺的概念，因为人类的生命取决于它。尽管大量研究探讨了发展中经济体的粮食安全，但发达国家对这一问题缺乏关注。因此，本研究利用分位数自回归分布滞后（QARDL）和小波相干方法调查了 1965 年至 2022 年二氧化碳排放（CO ₂）对美国粮食安全的影响。粮食安全用粮食生产指数（FPI）来衡量，控制变量是国内生产总值（GDP）、人口增长（POP）和通货膨胀。分位数自回归分布滞后结果表明： (i) 短期内，CO ₂在 0.05 分位数处对 FPI 产生积极影响，而在 0.50 和 0.95 分位数处则损害粮食安全。然而，从长远来看，所有分位数的影响都是积极的；(ii) 短期内，GDP 在 0.05 分位数处损害 FPI，而在 0.50 和 0.95 分位数处有利于 FPI。从长远来看，GDP 对所有分位数的影响都是有益的；(iii) 在短期内，POP 在 0.05 和 0.50 分位数处对 FPI 产生负面影响，同时在 0.95 分位数处对 FPI 产生积极刺激。从长期来看，POP 在 0.05 分位数处对 FPI 产生积极影响，而在 0.50 和 0.95 分位数处对 FPI 产生负面影响；(iv) 通货膨胀对所有分位数的短期和长期 FPI 产生积极影响；(v) 小波相干分析显示所有频率之间存在强大的相关性。进一步讨论了政策建议和影响。