The interaction of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks with energy price fluctuations has remained a critical global issue. This interaction can impact several regions' macroeconomic performance and welfare by making fundamental energy price forecasting more difficult, which may lead to exuberant behaviour. To help producers, consumers, and regulators make informed decisions in the face of volatile and uncertain energy markets, it is critical to highlight how these uncertainties influence price exuberance. In this light, this study examines the impact of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks on international energy price exuberance using monthly data from January 1990 to October 2022. The study employs supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller (SADF) and generalised augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) tests to identify energy price exuberance. Firstly, consistent with exuberant behaviour, the tests identify seven episodes of explosive behaviour in the international energy prices within the sample. Secondly, this study applies the Logit model to estimate the impact of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks on price exuberance. The estimates suggest that the heightening of global uncertainty may deflate the price exuberance. This study also observes that adverse geopolitical risks (threats and acts) in the world and Ukraine amplify the likelihood of price exuberance in the market. However, adverse geopolitical risk (GPR) in Russia negatively impacted the formation of price exuberance. This finding implies that policymakers can use global uncertainty and geopolitical risks as early warning indicators of probable price exuberance in the international energy market. The findings also indicate the need for a buffer system and safe passage for the flow of energy supply in a geopolitical conflict or a major global event. The study further shows the need for a coordinated effort in innovation, research, and development to enhance energy efficiency and minimise reliance on fossil fuels, which these uncertainties may not significantly influence.

中文翻译：

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全球不确定性、地缘政治风险和价格繁荣：来自国际能源市场的证据

全球不确定性和地缘政治风险与能源价格波动的相互作用仍然是一个关键的全球问题。这种相互作用可以使基本能源价格预测变得更加困难，从而影响多个地区的宏观经济表现和福利，从而可能导致过度行为。为了帮助生产商、消费者和监管机构在能源市场波动和不确定的情况下做出明智的决策，必须强调这些不确定性如何影响价格繁荣。有鉴于此，本研究使用 1990 年 1 月至 2022 年 10 月的月度数据考察了全球不确定性和地缘政治风险对国际能源价格繁荣的影响。该研究采用了至上增强迪基富勒 (SADF) 和广义增强迪基富勒 (GSADF)测试以确定能源价格是否繁荣。首先，与旺盛行为一致，测试确定了样本内国际能源价格的七次爆炸性行为。其次，本研究应用Logit模型来估计全球不确定性和地缘政治风险对价格繁荣的影响。估计表明，全球不确定性的加剧可能会抑制价格的繁荣。这项研究还观察到，世界和乌克兰的不利地缘政治风险（威胁和行为）放大了市场价格繁荣的可能性。然而，俄罗斯的不利地缘政治风险（GPR）对价格繁荣的形成产生了负面影响。这一发现意味着政策制定者可以利用全球不确定性和地缘政治风险作为国际能源市场可能价格繁荣的预警指标。研究结果还表明，在地缘政治冲突或重大全球事件中，需要一个缓冲系统和能源供应安全通道。该研究进一步表明，需要在创新、研究和开发方面协调努力，以提高能源效率并尽量减少对化石燃料的依赖，而这些不确定性可能不会对其产生重大影响。