Consistency, in a narrow sense, denotes the alignment between the forecast-optimization strategy and the verification directive. The current recommended deterministic solar forecast verification practice is to report the skill score based on root mean square error (RMSE), which would violate the notion of consistency if the forecasts are optimized under another strategy such as minimizing the mean absolute error (MAE). This paper overcomes such difficulty by proposing a so-called “potential RMSE skill score,” which depends only on (1) the cross-correlation between forecasts and observations and (2) the autocorrelation of observations. While greatly simplifying the calculation, the new skill score does not discriminate inconsistent forecasts as much, e.g., even MAE-optimized forecasts can attain a high RMSE skill score.

中文翻译：

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潜在均方根误差技能得分

狭义上的一致性是指预测优化策略与验证指令之间的一致性。当前推荐的确定性太阳能预测验证实践是根据均方根误差 (RMSE) 报告技能得分，如果在另一种策略（例如最小化平均绝对误差 (MAE)）下优化预测，这将违反一致性概念。本文通过提出所谓的“潜在 RMSE 技能得分”克服了这一困难，该得分仅取决于（1）预测和观测之间的互相关性以及（2）观测的自相关。虽然大大简化了计算，但新的技能得分不会过多地区分不一致的预测，例如，即使是 MAE 优化的预测也可以获得较高的 RMSE 技能得分。