This paper introduces a new indicator for reported intimate partner violence against women based on search query time series from Google Trends. This indicator is built up from the relative popularity of three topic‐related keywords. We propose a predictive model based on this specific Google index that is assessed relative to two alternative models: the first one includes the lagged variable, while the second one considers fatalities as a predictor. This comparative analysis is run in two different samples, whether the reported cases are a direct consequence of a violent direct or not. Our results show that the predictive model based on Google data significantly outperforms the other two models, regardless the sample and the forecast horizon. Then, using information gathered from Google queries may improve the allocation and management of resources and services to protect women against this form of violence and to improve risk assessment.

中文翻译：

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搜索查询是否可以预测暴力侵害妇女行为？基于Google Trends的预测模型

本文基于谷歌趋势的搜索查询时间序列，介绍了一个新的指标，用于报告亲密伴侣暴力侵害妇女行为。该指标是根据三个主题相关关键词的相对受欢迎程度建立的。我们提出了一个基于这个特定谷歌指​​数的预测模型，该模型相对于两个替代模型进行评估：第一个模型包含滞后变量，而第二个模型将死亡人数视为预测变量。这种比较分析是在两个不同的样本中进行的，无论报告的案件是否是直接暴力的直接后果。我们的结果表明，无论样本和预测范围如何，基于谷歌数据的预测模型都明显优于其他两个模型。然后，使用从谷歌查询中收集的信息可以改善资源和服务的分配和管理，以保护妇女免受这种形式的暴力侵害并改进风险评估。