This study explores how the System Dynamics modeling approach can help deal with the problem of conventional insurance mechanisms by studying the feedback loops governing complex systems connected to the disaster insurance mechanism. Instead of addressing the disaster’s underlying risk, the traditional disaster insurance strategy largely focuses on providing financial security for asset recovery after a disaster. This constraint becomes especially concerning as the threat of climate-related disasters grows since it may result in rising long-term damage expenditures. A new insurance mechanism is suggested as a solution to this problem to lower damage costs while safeguarding insured assets and luring new assets to be protected. A local case study utilizing a System Dynamics stock and flow model is created and validated by examining the model’s structure, sensitivity analysis, and extreme value test. The results of the case study performed on a city in Latvia highlight the significance of effective disaster risk reduction strategies applied within the innovative insurance mechanism in lowering overall disaster costs. The logical coherence seen throughout the analysis of simulated scenario results strengthens the established model’s plausibility. The case study’s findings support the innovative insurance mechanism’s dynamic hypothesis and show the main influencing factors on the dynamics within the proposed innovative insurance mechanism. The information this study can help insurance firms, policy planners, and disaster risk managers make decisions that will benefit local communities and other stakeholders regarding climate-related disaster risk mitigation.

中文翻译：

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通过创新保险机制减轻气候变化相关灾害风险：拉脱维亚案例研究的系统动力学模型应用

本研究探讨了系统动力学建模方法如何通过研究与灾害保险机制相关的复杂系统的反馈循环来帮助处理传统保险机制的问题。传统的灾害保险策略主要侧重于为灾后资产恢复提供财务保障，而不是解决灾害的潜在风险。随着气候相关灾害威胁的增加，这一限制变得尤其令人担忧，因为它可能导致长期损害支出增加。建议采用新的保险机制来解决这一问题，以降低损失成本，同时保护受保资产并吸引新资产受到保护。通过检查模型的结构、敏感性分析和极值测试，创建并验证了利用 System Dynamics 库存和流量模型的本地案例研究。对拉脱维亚一座城市进行的案例研究结果强调了在创新保险机制中应用有效的减少灾害风险策略对于降低总体灾害成本的重要性。在对模拟场景结果的分析中看到的逻辑一致性增强了所建立模型的合理性。案例研究的结果支持了创新保险机制的动态假设，并显示了所提出的创新保险机制动态的主要影响因素。这项研究的信息可以帮助保险公司、政策规划者和灾害风险管理者做出有利于当地社区和其他利益相关者在气候相关灾害风险缓解方面的决策。