The intensified geopolitical tension in Northeast Asia and the U.S.–China confrontation have shifted policy debates in Japan toward national security while the economic discussion has become thin. To regain more balanced policy talks, this paper tries to quantitatively comprehend the effect of the United States and its allies’ export controls on the East Asian machinery production networks and Japan's trade performance. Major findings include the following four points: First, most of the supply chain decoupling policies by the Japanese government have been the ones to prepare for sudden interruptions of the supply of important items while decoupling policies for strategic competition are limited only in the context of the cooperation with the United States. Second, international trade statistics at the industry level do not show clear evidence of supply chain decoupling in East Asia due to the U.S. export controls, at least up to 2022. Third, however, the negative trade effect becomes visible at the product or individual firms’ level, and the recent strengthening of the United States and its allies’ export controls may augment the negative effect on machinery production networks. Fourth, although the scope of trade controls would expand further, the supply chain decoupling is likely to end up with a partial one. The paper claims that middle powers such as Japan must establish a well-balanced trade policy.

东北亚地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及中美对抗使得日本的政策争论转向国家安全，而经济讨论却变得稀薄。为了重新获得更加平衡的政策谈判，本文试图定量理解美国及其盟国的出口管制对东亚机械生产网络和日本贸易表现的影响。主要研究结果包括以下四点：第一，日本政府的供应链脱钩政策大多是为重要物项供应突然中断而采取的政策，而战略竞争脱钩政策则仅限于战略性竞争的背景下。与美国的合作。其次，至少到2022年，行业层面的国际贸易统计数据并没有显示出由于美国出口管制而导致东亚供应链脱钩的明显证据。第三，然而，负面贸易效应在产品或个别企业上变得明显”水平，而美国及其盟国最近加强的出口管制可能会加剧对机械生产网络的负面影响。第四，虽然贸易管制范围将进一步扩大，但供应链脱钩很可能只是局部脱钩。该报称，日本等中等强国必须建立平衡的贸易政策。