Scientific findings can be overturned when new evidence arises. This study examines how communicating and explaining uncertainty around scientific findings affect trust in the communicator when findings change. In an online experiment ( N = 800, convenience sample), participants read a fictitious statement from a public health authority announcing that there was no link between a new COVID-19 vaccine and heart muscle inflammation. The authority communicated (1) no uncertainty, (2) uncertainty without giving a reason, (3) uncertainty due to imprecision, or (4) uncertainty due to incomplete accounting of patients. Participants were then informed that the authority’s statement was no longer correct as new data showed a link between the vaccine and heart muscle inflammation. Participants rated the authority’s trustworthiness before and after the evidence update. Our findings indicate that communicating uncertainty buffers against a loss of trust when evidence changes. Moreover, explaining uncertainty does not appear to harm trust.

中文翻译：

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当证据发生变化时：传达不确定性可以防止失去信任

当新证据出现时，科学发现可能会被推翻。这项研究探讨了当研究结果发生变化时，沟通和解释科学发现的不确定性如何影响传播者的信任。在一项在线实验（N = 800，方便样本）中，参与者阅读了公共卫生当局的一份虚构声明，该声明宣布新的 COVID-19 疫苗与心肌炎症之间没有联系。当局传达了（1）没有不确定性，（2）没有给出原因的不确定性，（3）由于不精确而导致的不确定性，或（4）由于对患者的不完整核算而导致的不确定性。然后参与者被告知，当局的声明不再正确，因为新数据显示疫苗与心肌炎症之间存在联系。参与者在证据更新前后对权威机构的可信度进行评分。我们的研究结果表明，当证据发生变化时，沟通不确定性可以缓冲信任的丧失。此外，解释不确定性似乎不会损害信任。