We implement a novel nonlinear structural model featuring an empirically successful frequency‐dependent and asymmetric Phillips curve; unemployment frequency components interact with three components of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE)—core goods, housing, and core services ex‐housing—and a variable capturing supply shocks. Forecast tests verify accuracy in its unemployment–inflation trade‐offs, crucial for monetary policy. Using this model, we assess the plausibility of the December 2022 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). By 2025Q4, the SEP projects 2.1% inflation; however, conditional on the SEP unemployment path, we project 2.9%. A fairly deep recession delivers the SEP inflation path, but a simple welfare analysis rejects this outcome.

中文翻译：

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新冠疫情后通胀动态：走高且持续时间更长

我们实现了一种新颖的非线性结构模型，该模型具有经验上成功的频率相关且不对称的菲利普斯曲线；失业率成分与核心个人消费支出（PCE）的三个组成部分（核心商品、住房和除住房外的核心服务）以及捕捉供应冲击的变量相互作用。预测测试验证了失业与通胀权衡的准确性，这对货币政策至关重要。使用此模型，我们评估了 2022 年 12 月经济预测摘要 (SEP) 的合理性。到 2025 年第四季度，SEP 预计通胀率为 2.1%；然而，以 SEP 失业率路径为条件，我们预计 2.9%。相当严重的衰退提供了 SEP 通胀路径，但简单的福利分析拒绝了这一结果。