Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) demand for cereals is projected to more than double by 2050. Climate change is generally assumed to add to the future challenges of the needed productivity increase. This study aimed to assess (i) the potential climate change impact on four key rainfed cereals (maize, millet, sorghum and wheat) in ten SSA countries namely Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia using local data and national expertise, and (ii) the potential of cultivar adaptation to climate change for the four crops. We assessed effects on rainfed potential cereal yields per crop and aggregated these to regional level in West (WA), East and Southern Africa (ESA). We made use of a rigorous agronomic dataset for 120 locations in the ten countries and performed simulations of rainfed potential yield (Yw) using bias-corrected climate data from five GCMs, three time periods (1995–2014 as baseline, 2040–2059, and 2080–2099) and two scenarios (SSP3–7.0 as business as usual and SSP5–8.5 as pessimistic). We tested whether better adapted cultivars (taken from the pool of cultivars currently employed in the ten countries) could compensate for climate change. Results showed that climate change decreased aggregated Yw of cereals by around 6% in ESA by 2050, whereas projected impacts in WA were not significant. In 2090, however, the projected impact of climate change in both WA (−24%) and ESA (−9%). was significant. Cultivar adaptation partially compensated the negative impact of climate change. With the adaptation approach, 87% and 82% of potential production in ESA was estimated to occur with higher average Yw and lower variability in, respectively, 2050 and 2090, compared to the baseline period. In WA 67% and 43% of the potential production was estimated to experience such positive effects in 2050 and 2090, respectively. These results highlight remaining adaptation challenges for 13% (2050) and 18% (2090) in ESA and 33% (2050) and 57% (2090) in WA for potential production. In the context of the large yield gaps in SSA, this is likely to further increase challenges to meet cereal self-sufficiency for SSA, especially in WA.

中文翻译：

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撒哈拉以南非洲气候变化的影响和雨养谷物作物的适应

预计到 2050 年，撒哈拉以南非洲地区 (SSA) 对谷物的需求将增加一倍以上。人们普遍认为，气候变化将加剧未来提高生产力所需的挑战。本研究旨在评估 (i) 气候变化对十个撒哈拉以南非洲国家（即布基纳法索、加纳、马里、尼日尔、尼日利亚、埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、坦桑尼亚、乌干达）四种主要雨养谷物（玉米、小米、高粱和小麦）的潜在影响，以及赞比亚利用当地数据和国家专业知识，以及（ii）四种作物品种适应气候变化的潜力。我们评估了对每种作物的雨养潜在谷物产量的影响，并将这些影响汇总到西非（WA）、东非和南部非洲（ESA）的区域水平。我们利用了 10 个国家 120 个地点的严格农艺数据集，并使用来自 5 个 GCM、三个时间段（1995-2014 年作为基线、2040-2059 年和2080-2099）和两种情景（SSP3-7.0 为一切照旧，SSP5-8.5 为悲观）。我们测试了更适应的品种（取自十个国家目前使用的品种库）是否可以弥补气候变化。结果显示，到 2050 年，气候变化使欧空局谷物总产量减少约 6%，而预计对西澳大利亚州的影响并不显着。然而，到 2090 年，气候变化对西澳 (-24%) 和欧空局 (-9%) 的预计影响。意义重大。品种适应部分补偿了气候变化的负面影响。采用适应方法，与基准期相比，预计 2050 年和 2090 年欧空局潜在产量的 87% 和 82% 将分别以较高的平均 Yw 和较低的变异性发生。据估计，西澳 2050 年和 2090 年将分别有 67% 和 43% 的潜在产量受到这种积极影响。这些结果凸显了欧空局 13%（2050 年）和 18%（2090 年）以及西澳州 33%（2050 年）和 57%（2090 年）潜在生产仍面临的适应挑战。在撒哈拉以南非洲地区产量差距巨大的背景下，这可能会进一步增加撒哈拉以南非洲地区谷物自给自足的挑战，特别是在西澳。