The year-to-year rate and acceleration of the changes in global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for 1870–2022 are determined using non-linear techniques. Our methodology identifies the non-linear, long-term tendencies of the warming, revealing subtle but essential features of the SST changes that are impossible to identify by linear techniques. Our analysis identifies inhomogeneous patterns of SST evolution. For instance, in most equatorial regions, including the western Pacific, the acceleration of the warming is positive, and sustained warming replaces the cooling at the beginning of the records. On the contrary, the warming acceleration in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is negative, indicating a sustained warming at the beginning of the record that weakens over the years, resulting in a stagnated warming or even a cooling in recent years. We identify a strong warming with a negative acceleration for the North Atlantic. We hypothesize that this warming is part of the multidecadal variability of SST rather than a long-term trend.

中文翻译：

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关于长期海面温度全球趋势的非线性性质

1870-2022 年全球海面温度 (SST) 逐年变化率和加速度是使用非线性技术确定的。我们的方法确定了变暖的非线性长期趋势，揭示了海温变化的微妙但本质的特征，这是线性技术无法识别的。我们的分析确定了海温演化的不均匀模式。例如，在包括西太平洋在内的大多数赤道地区，变暖的加速是积极的，持续的变暖取代了记录开始时的变冷。相反，赤道中东部太平洋升温加速为负值，表明有记录之初持续升温，随后逐年减弱，导致近年来升温停滞甚至降温。我们发现北大西洋出现强烈变暖并伴有负加速度。我们假设这种变暖是海表温度数十年变化的一部分，而不是长期趋势。