Unpredictable income poses a significant threat to economic stability for many U.S. households. While budgeting may help to mitigate some of the negative effects of unpredictable income, the process of budgeting can also be more challenging under such circumstances. This paper presents new descriptive evidence on the relationship between income predictability, financial wellbeing, and budgeting behavior using data from a nationally‐representative survey of nearly 4000 U.S. adults. We document a strong negative relationship between income unpredictability and financial wellbeing. However, the strength of this negative relationship is substantially attenuated for those who budget. This suggests that budgeting may be a useful tool for mitigating the adverse effects of unpredictable income. Despite these benefits, the propensity to budget is significantly lower among those with the most unpredictable income. These findings indicate the need for policy reforms that insure households against unpredictable income in addition to efforts targeting individual‐level financial management strategies.

中文翻译：

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收入可预测性和预算

不可预测的收入对许多美国家庭的经济稳定构成重大威胁。虽然预算可能有助于减轻不可预测收入的一些负面影响，但在这种情况下，预算过程也可能更具挑战性。本文利用对近 4000 名美国成年人进行的全国代表性调查的数据，提出了收入可预测性、财务状况和预算行为之间关系的新描述性证据。我们记录了收入不可预测性和财务状况之间存在很强的负相关关系。然而，对于那些有预算的人来说，这种负面关系的强度大大减弱。这表明预算可能是减轻收入不可预测的不利影响的有用工具。尽管有这些好处，但收入最不可预测的人的预算倾向却明显较低。这些发现表明，除了针对个人层面的财务管理策略的努力之外，还需要进行政策改革，以确保家庭免受不可预测的收入的影响。