Computer-based crop simulation models are important tools for agricultural research and management. APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) is commonly used around the world but has not been widely validated in North America.

The objective of this work was to evaluate the reliability of APSIM for simulating wheat production in California, with the aim of providing guidance for future field research aimed at model calibration and validation.

Environmental and management data from state-wide wheat variety trials of common wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) were used to parameterise the APSIM-Wheat module (ver. 7.10 r4220). Simulated yield and protein data were compared with observed field trial results to test the reliability of APSIM simulations.

The most reliable simulation of grain yield had a root-mean-square error of 1040 kg/ha and normalised root-mean-square error of 16% relative to actual field data. Preliminary calibration of the model for Californian wheat varieties did not improve simulation accuracy or precision.

The accuracy or precision of the simulations was comparable to that of other tests of the APSIM-Wheat module in environments where it has not been previously calibrated but was considered too low to be reliable. The lack of reliability was due to the poor representation of local Californian wheat genotypes by existing APSIM cultivars, as well as possible lack of precision and accuracy of field data.

APSIM could be a valuable tool for wheat research and management in California; however, further research is needed to generate suitable field data for model calibration and validation.

基于计算机的作物模拟模型是农业研究和管理的重要工具。APSIM（农业生产系统 sIMulator）在世界各地普遍使用，但在北美尚未得到广泛验证。

这项工作的目的是评估 APSIM 模拟加利福尼亚州小麦生产的可靠性，旨在为未来旨在模型校准和验证的现场研究提供指导。

来自全州普通小麦 ( Triticum aestivum L.) 小麦品种试验的环境和管理数据用于参数化 APSIM-Wheat 模块（版本 7.10 r4220）。将模拟的产量和蛋白质数据与观察到的田间试验结果进行比较，以测试 APSIM 模拟的可靠性。

最可靠的谷物产量模拟的均方根误差为 1040 千克/公顷，相对于实际田间数据的归一化均方根误差为 16%。对加州小麦品种模型的初步校准并没有提高模拟的准确性或精确度。

模拟的准确性或精度与 APSIM-Wheat 模块在之前未经校准但被认为太低而不可靠的环境中进行的其他测试相当。缺乏可靠性是由于现有 APSIM 品种对加州当地小麦基因型的代表性较差，以及田间数据可能缺乏精确度和准确性。

APSIM 可能成为加州小麦研究和管理的宝贵工具；然而，还需要进一步研究来生成适合模型校准和验证的现场数据。