The projection of precipitation changes and the year of surpassing a 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 °C warming above pre-industrial levels in the Middle East – West Asia (MEWA) during 2026–2100 was conducted using dynamical downscaling of the Regional Climate Modeling version 4.7 (RegCM4.7) under Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. Two significant changes in annual precipitation were identified compared to the baseline period of 1990–2014: a decrease in the Mediterranean Basin (MB) and an increase in the Persian Gulf- the Gulf of Oman -east of the Arabian Peninsula region (POA). The above patterns were also detected during the spring of 2026–2050. However, a decrease in precipitation is anticipated around the Persian Gulf (PG) during 2076–2100. The precipitation patterns exhibit a decrease in the MB and east of it up to Iran during the summer. In contrast, there is an increase in precipitation in the POA. During autumn, precipitation increases (decreases) around the POA (MB). During the winter, there is an increase (decrease) in the precipitation of POA (from the MB to Iran). In the SSP5-8.5 scenario, a 2 °C (3 °C) warming is expected by 2050 (2068), about two (four) decades earlier than SSP2-4.5. A 4 °C (5 °C) warming is expected by 2081 (2092) in SSP5-8.5, but postponed beyond 2100 in SSP2-4.5. Out of all studied cities, Tehran is projected to experience the greatest decrease in precipitation and the highest increase in temperature. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi is expected to encounter the greatest precipitation increase and the lowest temperature rise.

对 2026 年至 2100 年期间中东 - 西亚 (MEWA) 降水量变化以及升温超过工业化前水平 1、2、3、4 和 5 °C 的年份的预测是使用动态降尺度方法进行的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 情景下的区域气候模拟版本 4.7 (RegCM4.7)。与1990-2014年基线相比，年降水量出现了两个显着变化：地中海盆地（MB）减少，波斯湾-阿曼湾-阿拉伯半岛东部地区（POA）增加。在 2026 年至 2050 年春季期间也检测到了上述模式。然而，预计 2076 年至 2100 年期间波斯湾 (PG) 周围的降水量将减少。夏季，MB 及其东部直至伊朗的降水模式呈现减少趋势。相比之下，POA 的降水量有所增加。秋季，POA (MB) 周围降水量增加（减少）。冬季，POA（从MB到伊朗）降水量增加（减少）。在 SSP5-8.5 情景中，预计到 2050 年（2068 年）气温升高 2 °C (3 °C)，比 SSP2-4.5 早约两（四）个十年。SSP5-8.5 预计到 2081 年（2092 年）升温 4 °C（5 °C），但 SSP2-4.5 推迟到 2100 年之后。在所有研究的城市中，德黑兰预计降水量减少幅度最大，气温上升幅度最大。与此同时，阿布扎比预计将遭遇最大的降水增加和最低的气温上升。