Lottery-based identification strategies offer potential for generating the next generation of evidence on U.S. early education programs. The authors’ collaborative network of five research teams applying this design in early education settings and methods experts has identified six challenges that need to be carefully considered in this next context: (a) available baseline covariates that may not be very rich; (b) limited data on the counterfactual; (c) limited and inconsistent outcome data; (d) weakened internal validity due to attrition; (e) constrained external validity due to who competes for oversubscribed programs; and (f) difficulties answering site-level questions with child-level randomization. The authors offer potential solutions to these six challenges and concrete recommendations for the design of future lottery-based early education studies.

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基于抽签的早期教育项目评估：建立下一代证据的机遇和挑战

基于彩票的识别策略为生成美国早期教育项目的下一代证据提供了潜力。作者的五个研究团队的协作网络将这种设计应用于早期教育环境和方法专家，已经确定了在接下来的背景下需要仔细考虑的六个挑战：（a）可用的基线协变量可能不是很丰富；(b) 关于反事实的数据有限；(c) 结果数据有限且不一致；(d) 由于自然流失而削弱内部有效性；(e) 由于谁参与超额认购节目的竞争，外部有效性受到限制；(f) 难以通过儿童级别的随机化回答现场级别的问题。作者为这六个挑战提供了潜在的解决方案，并为未来基于彩票的早期教育研究的设计提供了具体建议。