Background:Understanding the global burden of gout in the past and future can provide important references for optimizing prevention and control strategies in healthcare systems.Objectives:This study aimed to report variations in the global disease burden and risk factors of gout in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.Design:We conducted a retrospective analysis of gout based on the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database.Methods:We collected data on the prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of gout from 1990 to 2019. The data were then stratified by age, sex, and economic development level. Decomposition analysis, frontier analysis, and prediction models were used to analyze the changes and influencing factors influencing each indicator.Results:Globally, there were 53,871,846.4 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 43,383,204.6–66,342,327.3] prevalent cases, 92,228,86.8 (95% UI: 7419,132.1–11,521,165) incident cases, and 1673,973.4 (95% UI: 1,068,061.1–2,393,469.2) cases of DALYs of gout in 2019, more than double those in 1990. Moreover, the pace of increase in the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) accelerated during 1990–2019, with estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) of 0.94 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.85–1.03], 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69–0.84), and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.84–1.02), respectively, especially among men. The disease burden of gout has increased in all the other 20 GBD regions in the past 30 years, except Western Sub-Saharan Africa. The highest risk of high body mass index (BMI) and kidney dysfunction was in high-income countries such as North America and East Asia. The global prevalence rate, incidence rate, and DALYs rate of gout in 2030 will reach 599.86, 102.96 per 100,000 population, and 20.26 per 100,000 population, respectively, roughly the same as in 2019.Conclusion:With the development of society, the disease burden of gout will become increasingly severe. It is very important to study the accurate epidemiological data on gout for clinical diagnosis and treatment and health policy.

中文翻译：

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痛风流行病学——1990年至2019年全球疾病负担研究及未来趋势预测

背景：了解过去和未来痛风的全球负担可以为优化医疗保健系统的预防和控制策略提供重要参考。目的：本研究旨在报告204个国家和地区的全球痛风疾病负担和危险因素的变化1990年至2019年。设计：我们根据最新的全球疾病负担（GBD）2019数据库对痛风进行回顾性分析。方法：我们收集痛风患病率、发病率和伤残调整生命年（DALY）的数据1990年至2019年。然后将数据按年龄、性别和经济发展水平进行分层。采用分解分析、前沿分析和预测模型分析各指标的变化及影响因素。结果：全球范围内，流行病例数为53,871,846.4[95%不确定区间(UI)：43,383,204.6–66,342,327.3]，流行病例数为92,228,86.8(95)。 2019 年，痛风 DALY 病例数百分比为 7419,132.1–11,521,165），发病病例数为 1673,973.4（95% UI：1,068,061.1–2,393,469.2）例，是 1990 年的两倍多。标准化患病率 (ASPR)、年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 和年龄标准化 DALY 率 (ASDR) 在 1990 年至 2019 年期间加速，估计年度百分比变化 (EAPC) 为 0.94 [95% 置信区间 (CI)：分别为 0.85–1.03]、0.77 (95% CI: 0.69–0.84) 和 0.93 (95% CI: 0.84–1.02)，特别是在男性中。过去 30 年来，除西撒哈拉以南非洲地区外，所有其他 20 个 GBD 地区的痛风疾病负担均有所增加。高体重指数（BMI）和肾功能障碍的风险最高的是北美和东亚等高收入国家。2030年全球痛风患病率、发病率和DALYs率将分别达到599.86/10万人、102.96/10万人、20.26/10万人，与2019年大致持平。结论：随着社会的发展，疾病负担痛风的情况将会越来越严重。研究准确的痛风流行病学数据对于临床诊疗和卫生政策具有重要意义。