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Temporal variability of temperature, precipitation, drought, and their potential influence on horizontal visibility over Saudi Arabia
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2024-03-04 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-04906-w
Saleh H. Alhathloul , Abdul A. Khan , Ashok K. Mishra

Changes in the hydrological cycle alter the meteorological variables trend over time, leading to higher extreme events. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of horizontal visibility (VIS), maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), precipitation, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are assessed over Saudi Arabia for the study period (34 years, i.e., 1985–2018) and two subperiods (1985–2001 and 2002–2018). The temporal variability of the variables is investigated for five climatic regions, using the Sen’s slope, Mann Kendall test, modified MK, and cumulative sum (CUSUM). Results confirm that precipitation over regions has declined by more than 21.1% during the second subperiod (2002–2016) compared to the first subperiod (1985–2001). Combined with the reduction in precipitation, a high increase in minimum temperatures in the second period contributes to the evolution of drought and visibility degradation. The onset of severe drought events (after the late 2000s) corresponds to an acceleration of VIS degradation. The change points for VIS occurred earlier in the arid regions (Northern and Interior regions, 2007 and 2008, respectively) and 2011–2012 for the rest. The change points for precipitation, Tmax, and SPEI series occurred in late 1990, while for Tmin, it occurred in 2010. In the first period, VIS show weak to moderate correlations with drought indices (12-month SPEI) for all regions, except for the Coastal region. In the second period, Northern, Interior, and Coastal regions show strong correlations between VIS and SPEI 12, while mountain regions (Highland and Southern) show moderate to week correlations between VIS and SPEI 12. The abrupt changes in climate teleconnection indices, which has a higher influence on Tmin in the second subperiod, may be the reason for drought evolution and visibility degradations.



中文翻译:

温度、降水、干旱的时间变化及其对沙特阿拉伯水平能见度的潜在影响

随着时间的推移,水文循环的变化改变了气象变量的趋势,导致极端事件的发生率更高。在本研究中,评估了研究期间沙特阿拉伯的水平能见度 (VIS)、最高温度 (T max )、最低温度 (T min )、降水量和标准化降水蒸散指数 (SPEI)的时空变化(34年,即1985-2018年)和两个子时期(1985-2001年和2002-2018年)。使用 Sen 斜率、Mann Kendall 检验、修正 MK 和累积和 (CUSUM) 研究了五个气候区域的变量时间变化。结果证实,与第一个子时期(1985-2001年)相比,第二个子时期(2002-2016年)区域降水量下降了21.1%以上。加上降水减少,第二阶段最低气温大幅上升,导致干旱和能见度下降的演变。严重干旱事件的发生(2000 年代后期之后)对应于 VIS 退化的加速。VIS 的变化点在干旱地区出现较早(北部和内陆地区,分别为 2007 年和 2008 年),其余地区则出现在 2011-2012 年。降水量、T max和 SPEI 系列的变化点发生在 1990 年底,而 T min 的变化点发生在 2010 年。在第一阶段,VIS 与所有地区的干旱指数(12 个月 SPEI)均表现出弱到中度的相关性,沿海地区除外。在第二个时期,北部、内陆和沿海地区 VIS 与 SPEI 12 之间表现出较强的相关性,而山区(高原和南部)则表现出 VIS 与 SPEI 12 之间的中等至弱相关性。第二个子周期对T min 的影响较大,可能是干旱演变和能见度下降的原因。

更新日期:2024-03-05
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