A joint model framework for estimating population sizes over time and survival probabilities while considering inbreeding and age as covariates in the survival function is elaborated. This methods is tested with data simulated over two small close to extinction open populations, that aims to imitate wild individuals under decline and bottleneck dynamics. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) perspective with a multi-state formulation that considers young and adult individuals is applied with data augmentation to account for non-seen individuals. The transition probabilities are estimated, and different treatments of the covariates and levels of data seen are compared. Our results suggest that the model framework correctly estimates different population size trends but the parameter estimation is challenging in some cases. The proposed model presents a new way to use the inbreeding coefficient, and further implementations on a real conservation data of wild species can help the decision-making process for the management of small populations.

中文翻译：

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具有数据增强功能的贝叶斯多状态模型，用于估计种群规模和近亲繁殖对生存的影响

详细阐述了一个联合模型框架，用于估计随时间变化的种群规模和生存概率，同时将近亲繁殖和年龄视为生存函数中的协变量。该方法通过模拟两个接近灭绝的开放种群的数据进行测试，旨在模拟衰退和瓶颈动态下的野生个体。隐马尔可夫模型 (HMM) 视角采用多状态公式，考虑年轻人和成年个体，并通过数据增强来解释未见过的个体。估计转移概率，并对协变量的不同处理和所见数据水平进行比较。我们的结果表明，模型框架正确估计了不同的人口规模趋势，但参数估计在某些情况下具有挑战性。该模型提出了一种使用近交系数的新方法，并且在野生物种的真实保护数据上进一步实施可以帮助小种群管理的决策过程。