Independencia Bay is a very productive ecosystem in central-south Peru and a hotspot for the artisanal diving fishery and the aquaculture of scallop . Warm waters from strong Canonical El Niño (EN) events can have negative and positive effects along the coast, such as mass mortalities of scallops in the north and their extraordinary increase in landings and effort in the central-south. Other variations of EN are more localised and mainly affect the north of Peru, though they may indirectly affect Independencia Bay, such as through the migration of pelagic fish as their habitat expands, or the migration of scallop divers as their main resource collapses. In the context of ecosystem-based management, it is relevant to investigate how these combined effects are shaping the structure and dynamics of this ecosystem, to inform the decision-making process and allow for management strategies to be tested and improved. In this study, we used time series correlation analysis and a food-web model to study the role of environmental and fisheries-related drivers on Independencia Bay during a relatively stable period (2007–2020). We also investigated the influence on the ecosystem of changes originating in Sechura Bay (mainly through effects associated with the 2017 Coastal EN), aiming to elucidate probable masked effects of EN and provide insights for integrated ecosystem-based management in the region. We suggest that during our study period, there was a migration of effort to Independencia mainly following the mass mortalities of scallops in Sechura, apparently related to overstocking of seeds, in addition to the reported migration triggered by the 2017 EN, despite it being comparatively shortlived. In any case, the fishing effort in Independencia Bay increased considerably between 2012 and 2016 and it was the main driver of change in the ecosystem during this period, along with trophic interactions and a forced bottom-up control (primary production anomaly), as seen in the model's fitting procedure results. We suggest that the system's variations in production might be related to a combination of local drivers and teleconnection effects, such as the migration of effort from Sechura Bay and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation's general influence on the Eastern Pacific. The decline in the biomass of many groups in recent years, calls for a better integrated management that addresses local and remote environmental drivers, ecological changes, and perhaps most importantly, social aspects such as migration. We call for a local fisheries management option for Independencia Bay that is not independent of what happens in other regions of the coast.

中文翻译：

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偏远 ENSO 相关驱动因素对秘鲁独立湾营养动态的隐蔽影响：时间序列分析和食物网建模的管理见解

独立湾是秘鲁中南部一个生产力非常高的生态系统，也是手工潜水渔业和扇贝水产养殖的热点地区。强烈的典型厄尔尼诺（EN）事件带来的温暖海水会对沿海地区产生负面和正面影响，例如北部扇贝的大量死亡以及中南部扇贝上岸量和捕捞量的大幅增加。EN的其他变化更加局部化，主要影响秘鲁北部，尽管它们可能间接影响独立湾，例如通过中上层鱼类随着栖息地扩大而迁徙，或扇贝潜水者随着主要资源崩溃而迁徙。在基于生态系统的管理背景下，有必要研究这些综合效应如何塑造该生态系统的结构和动态，为决策过程提供信息并允许测试和改进管理策略。在本研究中，我们使用时间序列相关分析和食物网模型来研究相对稳定时期（2007-2020）独立湾环境和渔业相关驱动因素的作用。我们还调查了源自塞丘拉湾的变化对生态系统的影响（主要是通过与 2017 年沿海 EN 相关的影响），旨在阐明 EN 可能的掩盖效应，并为该地区基于生态系统的综合管理提供见解。我们认为，在我们的研究期间，除了 2017 年 EN 引发的报告迁移之外，主要是在塞丘拉扇贝大量死亡之后，向独立岛的迁移，显然与种子库存过多有关，尽管迁移的时间相对较短。无论如何，独立湾的捕捞量在 2012 年至 2016 年间大幅增加，是这一时期生态系统变化的主要驱动因素，此外还有营养相互作用和强制自下而上的控制（初级生产异常），如图所示在模型的拟合过程结果中。我们认为，该系统的产量变化可能与当地驱动因素和遥相关效应的组合有关，例如来自塞丘拉湾的努力迁移和太平洋十年涛动对东太平洋的总体影响。近年来，许多群体的生物量下降，需要更好的综合管理，解决当地和偏远的环境驱动因素、生态变化，也许最重要的是，解决移民等社会问题。我们呼吁独立湾采取当地渔业管理方案，该方案不能独立于沿海其他地区发生的情况。