Using Canada’s provinces and territories in conjunction with the “Cohort Change Ratio” approach to generating a stable population, I test the accuracy of two regression models constructed from national-level data designed to estimate two factors of a population at stability from initial conditions at the sub-national levels: (1) its constant rate of change, denoted here by r'; and (2) mean population age. In a test of accuracy at the national level I find that these models provide reasonably accurate estimates. In the tests at the subnational level, the accuracy, as expected, is less, but the results indicate that the national level models provide estimates that are useful. The models are useful because they are tractable and provide information not available from the traditional analytical approaches. Evaluating these models also provides the opportunity to look at Canada’s provinces and territories from a stable population perspective. The findings support the use of: (1) The Cohort Change Ratio approach in examining stable population concepts; and (2) the two regression models for estimating r' and the mean age of a population at stability. They also show that there are connections between initial conditions and stability that have been overlooked. This knowledge gap may be due to the fact that widespread knowledge and acceptance of the ergodic nature of the “age structure factor,” have served to mask the possibility that ergodicity does not always apply to other factors. Further exploration of these potential linkages appears to be in order.

我使用加拿大各省和地区以及“群体变化比率”方法来生成稳定的人口，测试了根据国家级数据构建的两个回归模型的准确性，这些模型旨在从初始条件估计人口稳定的两个因素。次国家层面：（1）其恒定变化率，此处用r'表示；(2) 平均人口年龄。在国家层面的准确性测试中，我发现这些模型提供了相当准确的估计。在地方层面的测试中，正如预期的那样，准确性较低，但结果表明国家层面的模型提供了有用的估计。这些模型很有用，因为它们易于处理，并提供传统分析方法无法提供的信息。评估这些模型还提供了从稳定人口角度审视加拿大各省和地区的机会。研究结果支持使用：（1）队列变化比率方法来检查稳定群体概念；(2) 用于估计r'和稳定人口的平均年龄的两个回归模型。他们还表明，初始条件和稳定性之间存在着被忽视的联系。这种知识差距可能是由于对“年龄结构因素”的遍历性的广泛了解和接受，掩盖了遍历性并不总是适用于其他因素的可能性。进一步探索这些潜在联系似乎是有必要的。