Germany has set ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, namely by 65% until 2030 (compared to the 1990 level) and achieving climate neutrality by 2045. Although GHG emissions have decreased in most sectors, the transport sector has experienced failed reduction attempts. Renewable fuels are promising sustainable fuel alternatives that can replace current market-dominant fossil fuels to reduce GHG emissions. However, the market development of renewable fuels is hindered by various economic, environmental, technical, regulatory, and social barriers. Using a novel holistic approach, this study aims to analyze the market development barriers for renewable fuels in the German transport sector. First, a novel extension to the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is proposed using the Type-2 Neutrosophic Numbers (T2NN), which is improved by the K-means algorithm. Second, the maximum mean de-entropy algorithm is applied to convert the results of T2NN-DEMATEL into input for interpretive structural modeling (ISM). Next, a case study is conducted to analyze the impacts of barriers on different transport modes using the T2NN-based additive ratio assessment. Extensive sensitivity analyses are conducted to measure the impacts of different factors under different circumstances. The obtained results indicate that insufficient renewable energy policies and regulations, the lack of coordination in the supply chain, and high technology conversion challenges are the most significant barriers. Moreover, road and maritime transport are affected more than the aviation and rail sectors by the market development barriers.

中文翻译：

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推动未来：利用新颖的分析方法克服德国可再生燃料市场发展的障碍

德国制定了雄心勃勃的温室气体（GHG）减排目标，即到2030年减少65%（与1990年的水平相比），并到2045年实现气候中和。尽管大多数行业的温室气体排放量有所下降，但交通运输行业的减排却失败了尝试。可再生燃料是有前途的可持续燃料替代品，可以取代目前市场主导的化石燃料，以减少温室气体排放。然而，可再生燃料的市场发展受到各种经济、环境、技术、监管和社会障碍的阻碍。本研究采用新颖的整体方法，旨在分析德国交通运输行业可再生燃料的市场发展障碍。首先，使用 2 型中智数 (T2NN) 提出了决策试验和评估实验室 (DEMATEL) 方法的新颖扩展，并通过 K 均值算法进行了改进。其次，应用最大平均去熵算法将T2NN-DEMATEL的结果转换为解释结构建模（ISM）的输入。接下来，利用基于 T2NN 的加性比率评估进行案例研究，分析障碍对不同运输方式的影响。进行广泛的敏感性分析来衡量不同因素在不同情况下的影响。获得的结果表明，可再生能源政策和法规不足、供应链缺乏协调以及高科技转换挑战是最重要的障碍。此外，公路和海运比航空和铁路部门更容易受到市场发展障碍的影响。