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The Impact of Academic Publications over the Last Decade on Historical Bitcoin Prices Using Generative Models
Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Research ( IF 5.318 ) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 , DOI: 10.3390/jtaer19010029
Adela Bâra 1 , Simona-Vasilica Oprea 2
Affiliation  

Since 2012, researchers have explored various factors influencing Bitcoin prices. Up until the end of July 2023, more than 9100 research papers on cryptocurrencies were published and indexed in the Web of Science Clarivate platform. The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of publications on Bitcoin prices. This study aims to uncover significant themes within these research articles, focusing on cryptocurrencies in general and Bitcoin specifically. The research employs latent Dirichlet allocation to identify key topics from the unstructured abstracts. To determine the optimal number of topics, perplexity and topic coherence metrics are calculated. Additionally, the abstracts are processed using BERT-transformers and Word2Vec and their potential to predict Bitcoin prices is assessed. Based on the results, while the research helps in understanding cryptocurrencies, the potential of academic publications to influence Bitcoin prices is not significant, demonstrating a weak connection. In other words, the movements of Bitcoin prices are not influenced by the scientific writing in this specific field. The primary topics emerging from the analysis are the blockchain, market dynamics, transactions, pricing trends, network security, and the mining process. These findings suggest that future research should pay closer attention to issues like the energy demands and environmental impacts of mining, anti-money laundering measures, and behavioral aspects related to cryptocurrencies.

中文翻译:

使用生成模型研究过去十年学术出版物对历史比特币价格的影响

自 2012 年以来,研究人员探索了影响比特币价格的各种因素。截至 2023 年 7 月,Web of Science Clarivate 平台上发表并索引了超过 9100 篇有关加密货币的研究论文。本文的目的是分析出版物对比特币价格的影响。本研究旨在揭示这些研究文章中的重要主题,重点关注一般加密货币,特别是比特币。该研究采用潜在狄利克雷分配来从非结构化摘要中识别关键主题。为了确定主题的最佳数量,需要计算困惑度和主题连贯性指标。此外,摘要还使用 BERT 转换器和 Word2Vec 进行处理,并评估了它们预测比特币价格的潜力。根据结果​​,虽然该研究有助于理解加密货币,但学术出版物影响比特币价格的潜力并不显着,表明联系较弱。换句话说,比特币价格的走势不受该特定领域的科学著作的影响。分析中出现的主要主题是区块链、市场动态、交易、定价趋势、网络安全和挖矿过程。这些发现表明,未来的研究应更加关注采矿的能源需求和环境影响、反洗钱措施以及与加密货币相关的行为方面等问题。
更新日期:2024-03-06
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