Abstract

Using data from 32 European countries for nearly 244 million live births between 1969 and 2021, this paper examines the effects of temperatures on birth rates. The results show that exposure to hot days slightly reduces birth rates five to eight months later, while much stronger negative effects are observed nine to ten months after exposure to hot temperatures. Thereafter, a partial recovery is observed, with slightly increased birth rates. This study also shows that the effect of high-humidity hot days is much stronger than that of hot days with low humidity. Besides, the effect of heatwave days has been found to be more severe than that of hot days that are not preceded by other hot days. This study finds that some adaptation to heat might be expected only in the long run.

中文翻译：

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温度对欧洲出生率的影响

摘要

本文利用 1969 年至 2021 年间 32 个欧洲国家近 2.44 亿活产婴儿的数据，研究了气温对出生率的影响。结果表明，暴露在炎热的天气下五到八个月后的出生率会略有下降，而暴露在高温下的九到十个月后会观察到更强烈的负面影响。此后，观察到部分恢复，出生率略有上升。这项研究还表明，高湿度热天的影响比低湿度热天的影响要强得多。此外，热浪天的影响比之前没有其他热天的热天的影响更严重。这项研究发现，只有从长远来看，人们才会对高温产生一定的适应。