Existing research suggests that alternative data are mainly informative about short‐term future outcomes. We show theoretically that the availability of short‐term‐oriented data can induce forecasters to optimally shift their attention from the long term to the short term because it reduces the cost of obtaining short‐term information. Consequently, the informativeness of their long‐term forecasts decreases, even though the informativeness of their short‐term forecasts increases. We test and confirm this prediction by considering how the informativeness of equity analysts' forecasts at various horizons varies over the long run and with their exposure to social media data.

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另类数据能否改善财务预测？地平线效应

现有研究表明，替代数据主要提供有关短期未来结果的信息。我们从理论上证明，短期导向数据的可用性可以促使预测者将注意力从长期转移到短期，因为它降低了获取短期信息的成本。因此，尽管短期预测的信息量增加了，但长期预测的信息量却下降了。我们通过考虑股票分析师在不同时期的预测的信息量如何随着长期变化以及他们对社交媒体数据的接触而变化，来测试并确认这一预测。