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Mission-oriented scenarios: a new method for urban foresight
Foresight Pub Date : 2024-03-11 , DOI: 10.1108/fs-06-2023-0119
Claudio Marciano , Alex Fergnani , Alberto Robiati

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic one. At the same time, the purpose is also to propose a useful innovation to enforce the usability of both methods. On the one hand, mission-oriented policies run the risk of being overly focused on the present and of not being able to develop preparedness in organization. On the other hand, scenario development has the reverse problem it often does not point out how to use scenario narratives to inform and devise short-term strategic actions.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper proposes an innovative methodological approach, the mission-oriented scenarios, which hybridizes Mazzucato's mission-oriented public policy framework with Jim Dator's Manoa school four futures method. The proposed methodological innovation emerges from a urban foresight academic-led project carried out in the context of the Metropolitan City of Turin, Italy, where a first application of the mission-oriented scenarios was tested on six different focal issues (from reindustrialization to cultural policies) and the scenario narratives were used as sources for the grounding of 12 missions and 48 strategic actions towards 2030.

Findings

Mission-oriented scenarios can contribute to the generation of more sustainable and inclusive urban public policies. This methodological proposal is based on an original mix of knowledge exchange procedures borrowed from methodological approaches with different backgrounds: the mission-oriented and the archetypal scenarios. Their conjunction could support the formulation of ambitious yet pragmatic policies, giving a plurality of actors the opportunity to act and establish fruitful and lasting partnerships.

Originality/value

The paper reconstructs one of the first urban foresight projects carried out in a major Italian city by two prestigious universities and exposes a methodological innovation resulting from reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of the project, which opens the door to the development of a new scenario technique.



中文翻译:

面向任务的场景:城市前瞻的新方法

目的

本研究的目的是提出一种创新且高效的城市政策制定流程,将发散性和创造性方法与聚合性和战略性方法相结合。同时,目的也是提出一种有用的创新来增强这两种方法的可用性。一方面,以任务为导向的政策存在过度关注当前且无法在组织中做好准备的风险。另一方面,情景开发存在相反的问题,它通常没有指出如何使用情景叙述来告知和设计短期战略行动。

设计/方法论/途径

本文提出了一种创新的方法论,即使命导向的情景,它将马祖卡托的使命导向的公共政策框架与吉姆·达托的马诺阿学派四种未来方法相结合。所提出的方法创新源于在意大利都灵大都会背景下进行的城市前瞻学术主导项目,其中以任务为导向的情景的首次应用在六个不同的焦点问题(从再工业化到文化政策)上进行了测试)和情景叙述被用作 2030 年 12 项任务和 48 项战略行动的基础。

发现

以任务为导向的情景有助于制定更具可持续性和包容性的城市公共政策。该方法提案基于知识交换程序的原始组合,该知识交换程序借鉴了不同背景的方法方法:面向任务和原型场景。它们的结合可以支持制定雄心勃勃但务实的政策,让多个参与者有机会采取行动并建立富有成效和持久的伙伴关系。

原创性/价值

该论文重建了两所著名大学在意大利主要城市开展的首批城市前瞻项目之一,并揭示了通过反思该项目的优缺点而产生的方法创新,这为开发新的场景技术打开了大门。

更新日期:2024-03-11
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